Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Jocephus]

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.

here's the difference...SHE'S DUMB!

[UK]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

I'm sorry but that's a complete and utter cop out..

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

But neither one of those factors is going to significantly affect this race, and its attitudes like that that continue to set the country back..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

Obama will likely get more votes because he's black than he'll lose because he's black.

He should lose because of how extremely left he is and how suspect, at best, his judgment is, but he talks a good game (without saying anything) that all of that is mostly glossed over.

Not to mention his having only 3 years of national-level experience. (and spending 2 of those years campaining)

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.

That's more based on ideologies and public perception. If Obama conducted himself the same way Palin has, it would be a much much different story completely with Hillary as the nominee. Also, right now Obama's liberal views are more appealing to the public than Palin's conservative views given the state of the US and who is getting the blame for that (GWB).

A president's effectiveness is often more defined by the effectiveness of their cabinet than their actual judgement.

[ghostrunner]

Not to mention his having only 3 years of national-level experience. (and spending 2 of those years campaining)

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.

Obama took office in January of 2005, so he's had at least two and a half solid years in the Senate before campaigns kicked up full steam. Then he has seven years as a State Senator representing a heavily populated metropolitan district.

I'm not going to knock Palin's experience. I don't find that to be a big issue, and if you look back I was giving her credit for what she had done well. But experience is the least of concerns people have about her at this point. Those interviews she gave were disastrous, and it goes beyond not being good at interviews. She couldn't even BS effectively. She seems to have very little grasp whatsoever on the functions of national government or foreign policy. Experience aside, she's as unqualified a candidate as I can remember.

[jim]

Would GRB implode if McCain were to win Tuesday?

GRB would be the least of our worries if that happens.

That's the attitude that makes me want to root for the old dude.

I was talking about the reaction. If McCain were to win, given what happened in 2000 and other things and the reports of efforts to block voting in poorer areas (8+ hour wait times in Gary, IN because they have TWO voting booths!) and given then Obama is the presumed winner it would be a scary reaction.

[jim]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

I'm sorry but that's a complete and utter cop out..

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

But neither one of those factors is going to significantly affect this race, and its attitudes like that that continue to set the country back..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

Obama will likely get more votes because he's black than he'll lose because he's black.

He should lose because of how extremely left he is and how suspect, at best, his judgment is, but he talks a good game (without saying anything) that all of that is mostly glossed over.

Not to mention his having only 3 years of national-level experience. (and spending 2 of those years campaining)

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.

Running a presidential campaign is by far the most challenging exective experience either of these candidates will have ever gone through. Obama's campaign is a well oiled machine, McCain's can't even get Joe the Plumber to show up and lets calls from Montreal talk shows fool Palin for over 5 minutes thinking she is talking to Sarkozy. Change of strategy, finger pointing, unable to even come close to keeping up in fund raising, etc...

[ghostrunner]

I hope if Obama loses we don't see a return of the Dumbf***istan map.

[Popeye_Card]

Not to mention his having only 3 years of national-level experience. (and spending 2 of those years campaining)

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.

Obama took office in January of 2005, so he's had at least two and a half solid years in the Senate before campaigns kicked up full steam. Then he has seven years as a State Senator representing a heavily populated metropolitan district.

I'm not going to knock Palin's experience. I don't find that to be a big issue, and if you look back I was giving her credit for what she had done well. But experience is the least of concerns people have about her at this point. Those interviews she gave were disastrous, and it goes beyond not being good at interviews. She couldn't even BS effectively. She seems to have very little grasp whatsoever on the functions of national government or foreign policy. Experience aside, she's as unqualified a candidate as I can remember.

I agree. And when you look back through history, it's not as if our greatest presidents have years upon years of service before becoming president. McCain's experience as a senator is great, but I can't think of anyone off the top of my head that's been elected president after being a legislator for so long (let's say 3 terms), without holding an executive role as well (outside of McCain's military experience, of course).

I also agree with the Palin-Obama difference. It isn't about years of service, or what they do. It's about the perception of their skill set. Obama has always given the impression of a well-reasoned thinker (even if you disagree with his ultimate conclusions/stances). From what we've seen of Palin so far on a national stage, she's been a wreck of jumbled thoughts and catch-phrases. I'm sure she's a great leader for Alaska. I'm not sure she would make a great leader at all for the entire US, if it came to that.

[Popeye_Card]

If you can fathom that MAINE is up for grabs, then anything is possible. I mean seriously, if Obama doesn't have Maine locked up a week before the election, he's in big trouble.

Obama is positively slaughtering McCain in Maine.
Rasmussen has it at 56-43, and they are slanted
to the right. He's wasting his money there.

++

As for Pennsylvania, it's really McCain's only big hope in the overall election for it to switch. If he loses PA, he basically has to win every other toss-up state. There's reason for hope for PA though, due to it's rural population that leans heavily Republican. Here's the Kerry map from 2004:



Kerry basically won the state by winning the cities (not much new there). If McCain/Palin can rally the rural areas enough to overcome the cities, they can flip the state. If McCain loses PA, he has to win all of MO, OH, FL, CO, NM, VA, IN, and NC. He loses any of those, he doesn't win. By winning PA, he can lose one or two of the others.

[JG1982]

Has anyone ever thought that these polls might not be right?

I mean, I understand that if all of them are saying the same thing, then it's probably somewhat truthful, but aren't these polls are rather small sample sizes?

Also, I've heard multiple times now that the majority of early voters have been for Obama, does that mean that Obama has all these new voters for him, or just energized democrats wanting to get out and vote early? There's no way to tell that

[ghostrunner]

Has anyone ever thought that these polls might not be right?

I mean, I understand that if all of them are saying the same thing, then it's probably somewhat truthful, but aren't these polls are rather small sample sizes?

Also, I've heard multiple times now that the majority of early voters have been for Obama, does that mean that Obama has all these new voters for him, or just energized democrats wanting to get out and vote early? There's no way to tell that

I think that's always a concern. I would think you'd look at states where the results have been erratic for places where McCain might win. And the national poll is probably meaningless as far as the outcome.

But if one is outpolling the other in a state day after day and poll after poll, I think it becomes harder to dismiss. The sample size gets bigger and bigger as the polling goes on.