Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[UK]

I find this redistribution stance odd as well as inflated scare tactics, Obama's economic policy is almost a carbon copy of the one Clinton used in the 90s.

Was Clinton a socialist? The economy was regressing in the early 90s coming off the 80s and did the economy regress, did people have a lesser shot of opportunity?

[planet planet]

Pollster fiends like PJ, help me here. Would Obama's lead in the polls be more convincing with the popular vote or with the electoral vote? I'd assume electoral helps his cause more. Any way to quantify it?

[UK]

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.

If Obama can keep the national avg. above 5%, he'll have anywhere from 300-350 in the EV. I am disappointed that these large crowds with a large % of those crowds containing the 18-34 sector hasn't translated into them voting early. I say that hypocritically as I haven't voted yet.

[PujolJunkie]

Pollster fiends like PJ, help me here. Would Obama's lead in the polls be more convincing with the popular vote or with the electoral vote? I'd assume electoral helps his cause more. Any way to quantify it?

The electoral vote is the most convincing way of quantifying his victory. The popular vote is important, obviously, but there's been cases of winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote, EG: 2000, Gore/Bush. Obama, right now, is projected to have a 6 point lead in the popular vote, which seems pretty feasible, or maybe just a point high or so. But his lead in the electoral college is extremely comfortable. Given that you need 270 to win, Obama is somewhere near the 375 electoral vote mark, which is considered an official landslide.

The state polls are what you want to look at. Virtually, the national polls mean jack squat. The national polls more or less give you an idea of what the popular vote will look like, while the state polls dictate the electoral votes. To directly answer your question, the electoral vote is the more convincing lead. The popular vote is nearly cosmetic.

[PujolJunkie]

[img]Poll Update[img]

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.

If Obama can keep the national avg. above 5%, he'll have anywhere from 300-350 in the EV. I am disappointed that these large crowds with a large % of those crowds containing the 18-34 sector hasn't translated into them voting early. I say that hypocritically as I haven't voted yet.

I am absolutely confident that come next Tuesday, they'll be out in droves. I do have to say this. As much as I am a huge Obama supporter, I really do wish he would have taken more time to reach out to that 18-29 or 18-34 voting block a lot more than he did in the final month. That's the group that got him here, coupled with the overwhelming support of AA's. I don't feel like he's neglected the youth vote, but I definitely think he needs to speak directly toward that group more.

They'll still turn out huge for him. Expect records in that area.

[UK]

Pollster fiends like PJ, help me here. Would Obama's lead in the polls be more convincing with the popular vote or with the electoral vote? I'd assume electoral helps his cause more. Any way to quantify it?

Electoral vote but I'm not sure there is a way to quantify this but as I mentioned in my prev. post, history has shown when a candidate is up +6 nationally that he'll likely win going away.

[UK]

[img]Poll Update[img]

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.

If Obama can keep the national avg. above 5%, he'll have anywhere from 300-350 in the EV. I am disappointed that these large crowds with a large % of those crowds containing the 18-34 sector hasn't translated into them voting early. I say that hypocritically as I haven't voted yet.

I am absolutely confident that come next Tuesday, they'll be out in droves. I do have to say this. As much as I am a huge Obama supporter, I really do wish he would have taken more time to reach out to that 18-29 or 18-34 voting block a lot more than he did in the final month. That's the group that got him here, coupled with the overwhelming support of AA's. I don't feel like he's neglected the youth vote, but I definitely think he needs to speak directly toward that group more.

They'll still turn out huge for him. Expect records in that area.

Obama hasn't talked specifically about JOBS enough either, despite historically not being well above avg. that rate is much higher over the last 15 years and likely going to increase to close to double digits. Obama should be pushing his college tuition proposals more. I'm not near any campuses but I hope student groups are getting out the message on campuses. I can remember at UK in '96 despite the obvious conclusion that there were plenty of Dole supporters.

[PujolJunkie]

[img]Poll Update[img]

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.

If Obama can keep the national avg. above 5%, he'll have anywhere from 300-350 in the EV. I am disappointed that these large crowds with a large % of those crowds containing the 18-34 sector hasn't translated into them voting early. I say that hypocritically as I haven't voted yet.

I am absolutely confident that come next Tuesday, they'll be out in droves. I do have to say this. As much as I am a huge Obama supporter, I really do wish he would have taken more time to reach out to that 18-29 or 18-34 voting block a lot more than he did in the final month. That's the group that got him here, coupled with the overwhelming support of AA's. I don't feel like he's neglected the youth vote, but I definitely think he needs to speak directly toward that group more.

They'll still turn out huge for him. Expect records in that area.

Obama hasn't talked specifically about JOBS enough either, despite historically not being well above avg. that rate is much higher over the last 15 years and likely going to increase to close to double digits. Obama should be pushing his college tuition proposals more. I'm not near any campuses but I hope student groups are getting out the message on campuses. I can remember at UK in '96 despite the obvious conclusion that there were plenty of Dole supporters.

From what I hear from a couple of my friends, it's more or less Election Central at their schools. There's a ton of reminders everywhere to get out and vote, a lot of effort to educate students on absentee stuff and where they can vote at, et cetera. But I do agree that Obama needs to really stress his tuition proposals big time. That's a huge shout out to first time young voters.

As for jobs, I do remember him saying his economic plan was something like "Jobs, jobs, jobs." Or that was more or less a tagline for it.

[PujolJunkie]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/28/news/ec ... 2008102807

Younger, healthier workers likely wouldn't abandon their company-sponsored plans, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's senior economic policy adviser.

"Why would they leave?" said Holtz-Eakin. "What they are getting from their employer is way better than what they could get with the credit."

Obama campaign response:

This morning, the McCain campaign’s top economic policy advisor unleashed an October Surprise of straight talk when he finally admitted that the health insurance people currently get from their employer is ‘way better’ than the health care they would get if John McCain becomes President. ... Senator McCain has been trying to cover this up for months, but his advisor’s brutal honesty today is certainly better late than never, and it should give every American pause about electing a candidate who has proposed such radical and dangerous changes to our health care system.

[jim]

It's simple, he's cutting taxes, and increasing spending in social programs including his national health care proposal. Unless he plans on dwarfing Bush's build up in deficit, he has to cut military spending. It's not that complicated.

He's cutting taxes now?

He claims 95% are getting tax breaks. My only claim was that he will be increasing taxes on small businesses (and obviously the top 2 new tax brackets he plans on adding... even tho every speech he or Biden gives shows that these brackets are increasing in size daily... from $250,000 to $200,000 to Biden recently stating $150,000 + income)

In terms of total tax revenue brought in, since he's actually putting back the tax rate for the upper 5% to pre-Bush levels, tax revenues will be more than McCain.