Colby Rasmus

[stldogget05]

What are those graphs supposed to be a measure of?

Also, with all these predictions one has to keep in mind the insane amount of variability involved. We aren't talking about machines, we are talking about humans so naturally there is a lot more variables that affect their performance making it much more difficult to predict. I think the point of this thread is that Rasmus could be awesome or he could flame out. It would be odd for a Cards fan not to get angry about these forecasts (even though they are very possible outcomes) or for a Cubs fan not to be happy that he might not be as great as everyone here talks about.

[Asmodai]

What are those graphs supposed to be a measure of?

Also, with all these predictions one has to keep in mind the insane amount of variability involved. We aren't talking about machines, we are talking about humans so naturally there is a lot more variables that affect their performance making it much more difficult to predict. I think the point of this thread is that Rasmus could be awesome or he could flame out. It would be odd for a Cards fan not to get angry about these forecasts (even though they are very possible outcomes) or for a Cubs fan not to be happy that he might not be as great as everyone here talks about.

eh its just me being me. it has nothing to do with the cardinals or cubs. just me putting things into perspective.

to defend myself. Cub fans think the same way of me when I talk about Felix Pie. Im the negative one, understanding the chances of him being nothing (hence why I was all over the potential rumor type thing involving him in a deal for KHALIL)

EqA. Superstar is EqA > .300. Star is .300 > EqA > .280

[cpebbles]

Who is who?

Hint: If you run an integral, youll actually find that Pie's more likely to develop into one.

Just in case you aren't aware of what you're saying, it's that PECOTA says Pie has a better chance to post a .300 between the ages of 23 and 29 (Including essentially his entire peak) than Rasmus is between the ages of 21 and 27 (Just entering his peak).

PECOTA also isn't privy to the scouting reports on Pie, which increasingly are of the opinion that he has a long swing and can't hit a breaking ball.

[Asmodai]

rasmus' stuff in 2014 isnt exactly trending upward. if you carry out the projection its going to be much of the same. dont use that as a cop out

i mean in 2014 it gives rasmus a 40% chance of being a scrub or worse. at 2014 for pie its only about 30%.

[cpebbles]

It's not trending upward because those percentages are heavily regressed, which is what PECOTA does. He is still likely to be better between the ages of 27 and 30 than he is between the ages of 21 and 24, just like everyone is.

[cpebbles]

Since I'm pretty sure I was unclear in that last post, what I mean is that those are not aging curves. PECOTA takes a sample of comps, and then regresses them, as all projections do to hedge their bets. Just because a slightly larger sample of Rasmus's comps had trouble in their mid 20s does not mean that Rasmus is likely to plateau and be declining in what should be his peak seasons.

[tenniseleven]

the .290/.400/.550 line was just a number I threw out there...

I believe that Rasmus has the type of ability that could lead to 1-2 years of this type of hitting ability...
I agree that the chances of he hitting that top tier are pretty slim, but I do believe that he has the ceiling if a lot of things go right...


I see Colby somewhere in between Jay Gibbons and Jason Bay (so somewhere between a .275-.300 EQA depending on how much of his ability he realizes and what part of his career we are talking about), with less ability to hit for avg than either but more ability to steal a few bases than either...


does anyone have the Zips or Chone for Rasmus over the next few seasons?
I know that both are pretty lean on Rasmus for 08, but I'm interested in seeing if they continue to discount Rasmus's proven power like they did for their 08 projections...

both Zips and Chone have Rasmus with an ISO near .170 next season (wheras Bill James has him near .230, which is a lot closer to what I would expect)


he had a damn good ST with the extra muscle he put on (he was scrawnier last year while hitting 30 HR), so that's a good start...
this year will say a lot more for Rasmus than even last year probably, considering it's hard to know where his numbers would have been had he not had the bad infection during the middle of 07 and he'll be out of the HR friendly ballpark...

Rasmus hit .256, .340, and .365 in his healthy months (.333 in Sept, but very limited)...does he have .300 ability? not sure yet, but I think it could be there in some seasons if he posts a .320 BABIP...


I'm not sold on the Pie comparisons, or the idea that Pie is just as likely to be a .290-.300 EQA player, but I guess we'll see with that (I don't think that Pie has the OBP ability of Rasmus or the Power of Rasmus and his--Pie's--avg will be highly driven by his BABIP being above .320)


I would take pretty much any bet that puts money on Pie having a higher peak season than Rasmus when it's all said and done, assuming no major injuries to either...

[cpebbles]

Incidentally, taking each player's age 23-27 numbers, you get the same probability of them putting up a "superstar" quality season and a big edge to Rasmus on the probability of "star" quality seasons. Rasmus has higher bust potential, but that's entirely because he's younger and less experienced. You incorporate scouting information into your assessment, and the higher bust potential is going to the guy who's a free swinger and can't hit a breaking ball.

And, once again, the trend at the endpoint on the graph does not mean that the pattern is set. If you arbitrarily chose age 26 as your endpoint, then Rasmus is steadily improving and Pie is falling off a cliff.

[Asmodai]

It's not trending upward because those percentages are heavily regressed, which is what PECOTA does. He is still likely to be better between the ages of 27 and 30 than he is between the ages of 21 and 24, just like everyone is.

If he makes it...but that's the whole point. We don't know if he makes it. Assuming Pie and Rasmus both make it, it's probably true that odds are Rasmus will hit a little better than Pie. However, we cannot make that assumption. And I know why Rasmus is trending downwards, again don't lecture me on it.

Incidentally, taking each player's age 23-27 numbers, you get the same probability of them putting up a "superstar" quality season and a big edge to Rasmus on the probability of "star" quality seasons. Rasmus has higher bust potential, but that's entirely because he's younger and less experienced. You incorporate scouting information into your assessment, and the higher bust potential is going to the guy who's a free swinger and can't hit a breaking ball.

And, once again, the trend at the endpoint on the graph does not mean that the pattern is set. If you arbitrarily chose age 26 as your endpoint, then Rasmus is steadily improving and Pie is falling off a cliff.

And Pies more likely to be a starter. Even just looking at those seasons we still arrive at the same conclusion: Theyre both essentially the same entity right now. They are interchangeable as I said like three weeks ago. That really was not the point of this thread and it is unfortunate that we arrived at this discussion. I basically said hey looking at his AA stuff, there seems to be a 50-50 chance of him developing into an above average ML player or better. That's VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY good.

[Asmodai]

I'm not sold on the Pie comparisons, or the idea that Pie is just as likely to be a .290-.300 EQA player, but I guess we'll see with that (I don't think that Pie has the OBP ability of Rasmus or the Power of Rasmus and his--Pie's--avg will be highly driven by his BABIP being above .320)

Rasmus doesn't have the defense that Pie has. Rasmus and Pie both have similar power. Both guys will probably wind up being low to mid 20 HR guys, maybe getting 30 in their career years. Rasmus might have two or three more HR power than Pie but Pie will probably make that up with doubles and triples (although its not likely for the triples to materialize in Wrigley). Rasmus will probably walk about 25 more times than Pie. Pie will probably hit for a higher average than Rasmus. All in all they add up to roughly the same offensive output, hence the nearly identical EqA projections.

Going into last season his PECOTA comps:

Code: Select all

Rank 	Hitter 	Year 	Score 	Trend 	Rank 	Hitter 	Year 	Score 	Trend
1 	CHRIS LUBANSKI 	2006 	49 		11 	CODY ROSS 	2001 	26 	
2 	CARLOS GONZALEZ 	2006 	39 		12 	DEE BROWN 	1999 	26 	
3 	FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ 	2004 	34 		13 	NATE SPEARS 	2006 	24 	
4 	LASTINGS MILLEDGE 	2006 	34 		14 	JEREMY HERMIDA 	2004 	23 	
5 	NATE MCLOUTH 	2002 	32 		15 	ALEX ESCOBAR 	1999 	23 	
6 	FELIX PIE 	2005 	31 		16 	IAN STEWART 	2006 	23 	
7 	BRANDON PERNELL 	1998 	30 		17 	CHRIS SNELLING 	2002 	23 	
8 	BRONSON SARDINHA 	2004 	30 		18 	RUBEN GOTAY 	2003 	22 	
9 	ROGEARVIN BERNADINA 	2005 	29 		19 	ANGEL SANTOS 	2000 	20 	
10 	BEN JOHNSON 	2002 	26 		20 	EDWIN ENCARNACION 	2003 	20 	

His top four this year: Chris Lubanski, Dee Brown, Willie Greene, Carlos Beltran

I dont have BP access any more, so Im not sure where Pie ranks any more. Given that Pie and him had roughly the same output in AA at the same age, Pie's probably still there somewhere.