Oklahoma vs. Missouri

[ThatGuy]

I guess it's worth noting that Missouri won't automatically be on the outside looking in at a BCS bowl if they lose tomorrow. It's very unlikely that they'd get a bid, but with this crazy season you can't rule anything out, especially if Missouri loses by a small and unconvincing margin.

But all of this "what if" talk about Missouri losing has me depressed more than 24 hours before the game has even started. I don't want the team to get overhyped or overexcited, but neither do I want to concede defeat like a fan of a team that hasn't ever been in this position.

These two football weekends (tomorrow and last Saturday) are easily the most anxious I've ever been during a college football season. With both Tennessee and Missouri playing in conference championship games, I might have a heart attack.

[BenNX74205]

I hope my earlier posts didn't indicate I thought Oklahoma would win. I think the Tigers have a great shot at winning tomorrow night. It sounds cliche, but I think they just need to execute the way they have for the past six weeks. I just think that if Mizzou does end up losing, the BCS bowl committee or whoever picks the matchups will overlook Mizzou in favor of Kansas. I totally disagree with that choice, but that's what it sounds like will happen.

[JL21]

Frankly, I'm not going to gripe if they DO lose tomorrow and then end up in the Cotton Bowl. That's still a heck of a landing place for them. If you'd told me before the year that Mizzou would be ranked #1 at one point and ended up in the Cotton Bowl, I would've been an extremely happy fan.

It just won't make any sense for KU to go to a better bowl than MU. This is ultimately why I wanted Mizzou to win by 140 points on Saturday. Exact quote from me: "I hope they win by so much that they knock KU out of the top 25".

[ThatGuy]

Three Things You Should Care About

1. Oklahoma hasn't exactly been a juggernaut away from home, even if coach Bob Stoops may be somewhat in denial on this subject. Just prior to a visit to Texas Tech on Nov. 17 -- a game which OU would lose 34-27 -- Stoops was asked about his teams' recent struggles outside of Norman, and he replied: "We're probably better on the road than anyone in the league the last eight or nine years; I would guess for sure, but maybe not. You might ask why we are so good on the road if we have the best record of everyone else." The regular-season figures, beginning from Stoops' debut in 1999: OU has lost 15 times away from home (11 true road games and four neutrals), and that's not even close to the best -- rival Texas lost just 11 times away from Austin (five true roads, six neutrals) during that stretch.

The Sooners will face Mizzou in the Alamodome, foreign turf for both teams, but OU is by far the bigger question mark when it leaves Memorial Stadium. In Big 12 games in Norman, the Sooners are 4-0 with an average point differential of +25.3, including a win over Mizzou and routs of Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. In conference games away from home, OU is 2-2 with an average point differential of +1.8, and that includes losses to Colorado and Texas Tech as well as close affairs with Texas and Iowa State. Even wunderkind quarterback Sam Bradford takes a noticeable drop outside of Norman; his conference road/neutral stats (57.3 percent completions, 4-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio) pale in comparison to his conference home stats (73.1 percent completions, 14-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio). The Tigers have been less volatile: the split between their home/road point differential in the Big 12 is only 23.5/15.

2. The key to the game? The Sooners' pass rush. Said one Big 12 defensive coach I spoke with this week, "The whole thing comes down to, can OU rush four guys and get pressure on [quarterback Chase] Daniel? Mizzou has so much firepower spread out all over the field -- especially when they go in no-back sets, which is about 30 percent of the time -- and it puts a real strain on you. OU, in that first meeting, decided to play a lot of three-deep, stay on top, and let Missouri get a lot of yards on dink-and-dunk plays, but not big plays. It looked like OU just said, 'Our offense is going to score enough points to win.' "

A big reason why the Sooners might not be able to win with that strategy a second time: Defensive end Auston English, their best pass rusher -- and the Big 12's sack leader -- is unlikely to play due to a hairline fracture in his right leg. English had 1.5 sacks (and two total tackles for loss) in the first OU-Missouri game, and since he's been injured, the Sooners have just one sack in their past 10 quarters. They didn't manage to sack Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell once on Nov. 17. "OU didn't really get home with that four-man rush against Texas Tech," said the coach. "If you don't do that, it really doesn't matter who you have in coverage."

3. The return of Tony Temple should make a world of difference for Mizzou. In their lone loss this season -- in Norman -- the Tigers were without their No. 1 running back. Temple was sitting on his couch in Columbia, Mo., helplessly watching the game while nursing a severe ankle sprain. Mizzou ran the ball 30 times for just 57 yards, and 32 of those came on reverse or shovel-pass plays to versatile wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Anyone who saw last weekend's Big 12 North-title-clinching win over Kansas is aware of the valuable balance Temple's running provides to Daniel's Heisman-caliber spread-quarterbacking skills. Temple ran 22 times for 98 yards in that game, while Daniel completed 40 of 49 passes for 361 yards. "Tony can make a huge impact," said Missouri coach Gary Pinkel. "There's no question he makes us a better team."

[cardsfansince82]

If Mizzou loses it will depend on the human votes, they will still be alright in the computers because they lost twice to the same highly ranked team. I don't think either them or Kansas will get a BCS bid though if that's the case. There are too many other teams that the bowls would rather have.

As for the game, it comes down to whether Mizzou can run the ball at all, which has me nervous. Temple is a nice running back, I just hate the running game out of the shotgun as a whole. Those little draws and counters work against lesser opponents but not against athletic d-lines and linebackers (which OU has). Even when that running game is working you still see several TFLs. When it's not working every other play is a TFL and you are in a hole all the time. I like the pistol look which closer resembles a power running game. I'd like to see Mizzou use it more. Please Pinkel, play this game straight up. You don't need to run a bunch of high risk double reverses and trick plays to beat this team.

[BenNX74205]

I don't think running out of the spread is the greatest way to have a running game, but with Temple Mizzou has been making it work. Temple is a slashing type of back back I suppose and the spread offense definitely gets him some running lanes. OU does have a lot of athletic defenders, so that is a bit of a concern, but Temple makes a big difference in the MU running game, and I'm glad he'll be there this time around.

[GatewaySnayke]

Ok, they just got done talking about in on ATH.

Mariotti and Adande are uninformed. Adande said that if Mizzou is going to win, they have to do better than 57 rushing yards. He didn't check to see that Tony Temple did not play. Mariotti said the Tigers defense gives up too many fourth quarter points. That might be because they are so far out ahead that they ease up.

1. I think Missouri in a dome is a big advantage.

2. If that OU d-lineman is out, that'll be a big boost

But...

1. Like RC, I'm not sure I like all of this attention being put in their face

2. No Chase Coffman hurts

[cardinalkarp]

2. No Chase Coffman hurts

Is that the latest, because I heard Pinkel say yesterday that he would play.

[JL21]

I found this in a quick search:

CC Machine: What's the latest on Chase Coffman and what does it mean for Missouri's offense if he can't play?

Ross: He actually injured the ankle against Oklahoma and it has just continued to nag him. He has been in a cast to immobilize the ankle for the early part of the week, and he's expected to test out the ankle in practice towards the end of the week. When asked by a reporter about the chances he doesn't play on Saturday, he answered "Zero percent." As for the ramifications on the offense, losing Coffman would hurt, especially in the red zone, where he has been money for three years. But it wouldn't make or break anything. The offense has so many weapons that losing Coffman just opens up 6-8 catches to be spread among Maclin, Franklin, Alexander, Rucker, Saunders, Perry, Temple, Washington, Jackson, etc.

http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/s ... /13140/339

[ThatGuy]

I'm going to refrain from watching the ESPN analysts until after the game (and even then, I may not watch). I hear far too many things that make me want to beat my head against a wall. It can't be healthy.