Yadi Redux

[Balltilyafall4]

Quote:
In his first full major-league season, the Cardinals led the major leagues in earned-run average and Chris Carpenter became the franchise's first Cy Young Award winner since 1970. Many in the Cardinals clubhouse and Molina's family believe his batting average may have adversely affected Molina's candidacy for a Gold Glove, an award given to the Houston Astros' Brad Ausmus by league managers and coaches.


Did he really just suggest that the hitting prowess of mighty Brad Ausmus led to Yadi being overlooked for a defensive honor?

I don't think that was the point...and I don't think you do either..

You and I both know that that "defensive honor" for the most part hasn't been a "defensive honor" only award for years....if it were Adam Everett would have been a slam dunk winner at SS last year (and he wasn't). It is based (imo) more on reputation and name recognition then who is actually the best defensive player in a given year, and offensive numbers are obviously also taken into consideration (even though they shouldn't be....remember when Rafael (sp) Palmeiro won the award? That wasn't based on offense?) The point was in the article (at least what I got out of it) wasn't that Ausmus was a hitting machine, but that Molina was so offensively challanged last year that voters saw his .216 avg and said "No way this kid can be good defensively look at his avg.!"...which isn't the point of the award to begin with.

[ghostrunner]

I'm just confused by the fact that Yadi has these great spring trainings and then he goes O for April or whatever and lowers his average into this black hole that he never gets out of.

Not that his 2005 was great, but he did start hitting decently after April and his numbers weren't much different from those of Matheny.

[greenback44]

As such, we might be better off improving catcher from 650 to 750, than we'd be by improving RF from 750 to 850.

The difference between 400 at-bats from a 300/350 hitter and a 330/420 hitter is 15 runs, give or take. As fate would have it, that's basically what Molina's arm is worth over an average catcher.

[Popeye_Card]

Our lineup used to be deep AND anchored by a couple cornerstone players. Now, we have a cornerstone hitter, two very good hitters (800-900 OPS), and the rest average or below average (likely to have two regulars with <700 OPS; likely to have two other regulars with uncommonly low platoon splits; likely to have three regulars in the bottom third in OPS at their position; first INF and first OF off the bench both sub-700 OPS even in protected, reserve roles; etc).

I assume you're talking about 2004 when the team won 105 games, and scored 855 runs.

Matheny 2004: 67 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Yadi could and should be able to acheive this. His career to this point is 64.

Renteria 2004: 90 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Eckstein's career average is 88. Very slight step down vs. that year for Renteria.

Womack 2004: 93 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Kennedy's career average is 91. 4 of the last 5 seasons have been above 93, with the exception at 90 (last year).

Sanders 2004: 105 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Encarnacion's career average is 96. 3 of the last 5 seasons he has been at 99 or above. Slight step down.

Lankford 2004: 102 OPS+ (200 AB)
Walker 2004: 146 OPS+ (150 AB)
2007 Replacements: Duncan's career OPS+ is 140 in 290 AB's. We can assume a slight decline from that level. Wilson's career OPS+ is 103--right in line with Lankford's 2004. Slight decline overall. Definate defensive decline.

So where is the real difference?

Pujols 2004: 175. Career 171. Not much difference.

Rolen 2004: 160. Career 129. Certainly his career year, but we can expect a year in the 130 range.

Edmonds 2004: 173. Career 137. Last year 111. Tough to expect him to go much higher than 125. As I stated, there's your big difference that has not been replaced.

Or maybe you were talking about 2003. But that's a special year, where Renteria was way above where he normally was, plus a decent number of AB's from Drew too. That team scored 876 runs.

--P--

[skmsw]

Quote:
In his first full major-league season, the Cardinals led the major leagues in earned-run average and Chris Carpenter became the franchise's first Cy Young Award winner since 1970. Many in the Cardinals clubhouse and Molina's family believe his batting average may have adversely affected Molina's candidacy for a Gold Glove, an award given to the Houston Astros' Brad Ausmus by league managers and coaches.


Did he really just suggest that the hitting prowess of mighty Brad Ausmus led to Yadi being overlooked for a defensive honor?

I don't think that was the point...and I don't think you do either..

You and I both know that that "defensive honor" for the most part hasn't been a "defensive honor" only award for years . . . The point was in the article (at least what I got out of it) wasn't that Ausmus was a hitting machine, but that Molina was so offensively challanged last year that voters saw his .216 avg and said "No way this kid can be good defensively look at his avg.!"...which isn't the point of the award to begin with.

I don't completely agree with you here. There is a well-known stereotype (and polling to prove it) suggesting that the worse a catcher hits, the better his defensive reputation, and vice versa. There is some truth to most conventional wisdom, but the point is, catchers who can't hit are RARELY (if ever) penalized for that regarding the reputation of their defense, and in fact, there is an assumption that the worse a catcher hits, the better he is defensively.

Lastly, yes, I disagree with your suggestion that it "wasn't the point." If there are "those in the Cardinals clubhouse" and "in Yadi's family" who believe that his batting average affected his candidacy, then they are not paying attention. Ausmus is one of the few catchers who might be as bad a hitter as Yadi is, and it didn't stop him.

In 2005, Yadi had a higher BA than Matheny, but Matheny took the trophy. In 2006 Ausmus hit all of 15 points higher than Yadi. It isn't bias. Hard as it is for Cards fans to believe, Ausmus and Matheny control the running game similarly (give or take) to Yadi -- but prevent wild pitches and passed balls much better. Yadi is an average catcher defensively, with a great arm.

[Popeye_Card]

I'll also note that there is a difference on the basepaths from the 2004 team. That team stole 111 bases. Womack, Renteria, and Sanders were all legitimate stolen base threats. The 2006 team stole 59 bases, and I don't see much of an improvement in store there in 2007.

Overall differences from 2004 team:
* Edmonds' bat
* Team speed
* Rotation depth
* Izzy health
* Defense at SS and LF
* Lefty bullpen (King and Kline were lights out)

Everywhere else, the team is pretty close to the 2004 counterpart, or slightly better (I like the righty bullpen depth better in 2007).

--P--

[Balltilyafall4]

Quote:
In his first full major-league season, the Cardinals led the major leagues in earned-run average and Chris Carpenter became the franchise's first Cy Young Award winner since 1970. Many in the Cardinals clubhouse and Molina's family believe his batting average may have adversely affected Molina's candidacy for a Gold Glove, an award given to the Houston Astros' Brad Ausmus by league managers and coaches.


Did he really just suggest that the hitting prowess of mighty Brad Ausmus led to Yadi being overlooked for a defensive honor?

I don't think that was the point...and I don't think you do either..

You and I both know that that "defensive honor" for the most part hasn't been a "defensive honor" only award for years . . . The point was in the article (at least what I got out of it) wasn't that Ausmus was a hitting machine, but that Molina was so offensively challanged last year that voters saw his .216 avg and said "No way this kid can be good defensively look at his avg.!"...which isn't the point of the award to begin with.

I don't completely agree with you here. There is a well-known stereotype (and polling to prove it) suggesting that the worse a catcher hits, the better his defensive reputation, and vice versa. There is some truth to most conventional wisdom, but the point is, catchers who can't hit are RARELY (if ever) penalized for that regarding the reputation of their defense, and in fact, there is an assumption that the worse a catcher hits, the better he is defensively.

Lastly, yes, I disagree with your suggestion that it "wasn't the point." If there are "those in the Cardinals clubhouse" and "in Yadi's family" who believe that his batting average affected his candidacy, then they are not paying attention. Ausmus is one of the few catchers who might be as bad a hitter as Yadi is, and it didn't stop him.

In 2005, Yadi had a higher BA than Matheny, but Matheny took the trophy. In 2006 Ausmus hit all of 15 points higher than Yadi. It isn't bias. Hard as it is for Cards fans to believe, Ausmus and Matheny control the running game similarly (give or take) to Yadi -- but prevent wild pitches and passed balls much better. Yadi is an average catcher defensively, with a great arm.

It isn't BIAS!?

Are you nuts? Why do you think a guy like Shaquille O'Neal...who DOESN'T deserve to go to the NBA All-Star game as a starter (and probably not as a reserve) gets voted into the All-Star game every year? Popularity and name recognition..

Why do you think guys like Matheny and Ausmus win gold gloves over "that third Molina brother?" Popularity and name recognition...cause it sure isn't based on numbers....and you completely disregarded my Adam Everett/Omar Vizquel comparison...which is ALSO based on name recognition and popularity..

Bottom line is the voting is bull, it has been for years, and out of 18 awards probably 30% of them every year aren't the guy that deserve it but the bigger "name"

Not saying theres a bias is ridiculous

[skmsw]

Not saying theres a bias is ridiculous

I'm not saying there is not ANY bias in ANY award voting, smart fella -- I'm saying that Yadi did not lose "his" gold glove award because voters were biased against his craptacular offensive year. We Cards fans tend to over-rate Yadi's defense. So far, he is an average catcher with a great arm and no bat, and in my opinion name recognition is NOT the reason why he failed to obtain a gold glove.

[skmsw]

As such, we might be better off improving catcher from 650 to 750, than we'd be by improving RF from 750 to 850.

The difference between 400 at-bats from a 300/350 hitter and a 330/420 hitter is 15 runs, give or take. As fate would have it, that's basically what Molina's arm is worth over an average catcher.

Yadi's arm is worth 5-10 runs over an average catcher.

[Balltilyafall4]

Not saying theres a bias is ridiculous

I'm not saying there is not ANY bias in ANY award voting, smart fella -- I'm saying that Yadi did not lose "his" gold glove award because voters were biased against his craptacular offensive year. We Cards fans tend to over-rate Yadi's defense. So far, he is an average catcher with a great arm and no bat, and in my opinion name recognition is NOT the reason why he failed to obtain a gold glove.

Then we have different opinions..

So "smart fella"...what was the reason Adam Everett lost the gold glove when all of those fancy projections and stats said he was the best defensive player IN THE GAME last year?

There are more things that should be taken into consideration then how you block the plate which is obviously what you're referring to when you say he's an avg. catcher.

And if you think Matheny controlled the running game similarly to Yadi in the last two years you are NUTS