Steve Adams' NL Central comments

mikechamp · Post by **mikechamp** » April 21 26, 6:26 pm

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on April 21. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.)

The same amount of questions this week, but a whopping 6 bonus Q&As: three about the CBA, two about the DH and one about legends vs. modern day players. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/04/ ... t-122.html
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Cade Horton will be out for about 16 months following Tommy John surgery. Will this affect his timeline for becoming arbitration eligible and then a free agent?

Steve Adams
No, he’ll accrue service time on the major league injured list that whole time.
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I understand the importance of the Cardinals rebuild, but if they remain in contention through the summer I’d be extremely disappointed if the team continues to dump players like Riley O’Brien at the deadline. As a fan, to watch a club fight for the playoffs all summer long, only for the front office to tank those chances for a couple of lottery ticket prospects would feel like a waste of my time. Especially with a lockout looming. I doubt I’m the only one that would find it hard to return as a fan if I spend a summer rooting for a club only to have the FO ruin my fall.

Steve Adams
I just don’t think the Cardinals have anywhere near the pitching for this to be a consideration in a few months. The rotation’s strikeout rate is around 14.5%, which feels almost impossibly low in today’s game. I feel like if they somehow managed to hang around in contention, the likelier play would be to shop impending free agents but hang onto potentially longer-term pieces like O’Brien (although he’s already 31, so if they sold high, eh … I’d get it).
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If you can count out the Cards despite having a winning record in April, can you count out the Giants in April with their losing record?

Steve Adams
I didn’t pick the Giants to make the playoffs and do not have regrets about doing so.
Poorly worded — haha … no regrets on choosing them to miss the postseason.
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What’s your take on the Ohtani rule?

Steve Adams
I find the fact that Craig Counsell whined to the media about the rule far more “bizarre” than the rule itself.
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Hoerner seems to be good for 6-7 WAR per year. That puts him comfortably over 70 WAR for a career (25 war already). Is he on a sneaky hall of fame career trajectory?

Steve Adams
He has exactly one six-WAR season in his career and has never reached 7 WAR (per either B-Ref or FanGraphs). He’s only 28, so hey, maybe he stays healthy, piles up 2500+ hits and wins a bunch of Gold Gloves, but I would take the “no” side of a Hoerner HOF bet here.
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Can the Reds keep it up? Can’t see the offense being this bad all year and could you imagine Louder and Burns out of the bullpen when Lodolo and Greene come back?

Steve Adams
I think the offense will improve. Stephenson’s not going to keep running a sub-.200 BABIP. Steer’s chasing more right now, but given where his contact levels are at, I don’t think he’s going to keep punching out at a 30-31% clip. McLain’s a weird one, but I remain semi optimistic. He’s taking tons of walks, not striking out much. He’s not hitting the ball hard whatsoever, but during spring training he averaged 93 mph off the bat with a 57% hard-hit rate in a sample not all that much smaller than his current regular-season one. Hector Rodriguez looking good in AAA.
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Will Victor Scott II breakout of his slump or continue his downward spiral?

Steve Adams
I just don’t think Victor Scott is going to hit major league pitching. Fine bench player in a classic speed/defense reserve outfielder, but his bat is just so light.
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Cardinals: So far so good! Still “rebuilding?!”

Steve Adams
They have a bottom-five rotation in MLB for me, so yeah, I’m not buying it. Fun start though, and some exciting steps from Walker, Wetherholt, Burleson and others.

Well maybe not huge steps forward for Burleson, but just doing what he did last year is good!
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Any thoughts on the Reds acquiring an upgrade to their OF? As of now their currently rostered players are combined hitting is abysmal.

Steve Adams
They need a better outfield and needed one in the offseason. They signed JJ Bleday. Which … I mean, fine as a low-cost roll of the dice in a vacuum. But when that’s the only upgrade to the outfield, woof. It’s hard for the front office with ownership not really supporting much in the way of spending, but I’d much rather have spent that Emilio Pagan money on a Ryan O’Hearn or worked out some kind of trade to meaningfully address the group.
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What’s a small-ticket item you’d personally like to see in the next CBA?

Steve Adams
All draft picks eligible to be traded.

Does that count as small-ticket? I suppose relative to the salary cap/floor or an international draft, it feels “small”-ish? Maybe that’s too large, but it’s so silly to me that it’s not allowed.
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What are the chances we get a salary floor? Chances we get a salary cap? (percentages) – If the owners are fully on board with not moving off salary cap demands then how long with the lockout last? Your best guess at least.

Steve Adams
I have consistently said in these, and still firmly believe, there won’t be any games missed, nor will a cap/floor system be implemented. I don’t think ownership would shoot itself in the collective foot with business booming, national streaming/broadcast rights deals up in 2028 and expansion possibly on the horizon now that the A’s stadium situation seems resolved (and perhaps with TB trending in that direction, though I remain skeptical there).
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Can they please remove the DH from both leagues and let the pitchers hit for themselves again? I’d love a return to old school baseball.

Steve Adams
Won’t happen, and I personally wouldn’t want it to. I have no desire to watch a bunch of dudes hit .140 and probably break their fingers trying to bunt the 98-102mph filth that permeates today’s game.
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I agree. Get rid of the DH. But they won’t consider it because they think we just want more big musclebound sluggers to hit 40 homers and strike out 400 times. And no amount of evidence will convince them otherwise. But then, the game’s marketing people insist that you can’t market the game.

Steve Adams
Ratings are up. Attendance at its highest rate in years. Money coming in hand over fist from streaming deals with Netflix, Apple, NBC, etc.You may prefer the no-DH era, but there’s a good bit of evidence to suggest there’s a pretty substantial portion of the fan base that either feels otherwise or doesn’t feel strongly enough about it to turn away.

I grew up watching AL ball, so I’m admittedly biased to an extent, but pitchers hitting was always boring to me, and I don’t buy the fact that there was “more strategy” in that version of the game. The strategic components are just different now (and better, IMO).
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Do you think a much more severe luxury tax coupled with a floor gets things done instead of a cap to avoid a lost 2027 season?

Steve Adams
I think they should just enforce the de facto floor they have. Teams are supposedly required to spend a certain portion of their revenue sharing dollars, and yet you’ve got Cleveland running a $60MM payroll, which to me is more of a joke than the Mets/Dodgers trotting out $300MM+ payrolls.
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Do you think any hitters from the old years of baseball (Ruth, etc.) could hit today’s pitchers? Velocity and movement is just insane now.

Steve Adams
Depends. Are you magically teleporting peak Babe Ruth to modern day ball? Like he just wakes up in 2026, still playing for the Yankees, and has to go try to hit Tarik Skubal or Mason Miller or Paul Skenes? No chance, in my mind. But if you bring 1920s Babe Ruth to 2026 and give him time to work with trainers, buy into the whole host of new … everything …. about the game, etc., I’m sure there’s innate talent that could be coaxed out and developed.

But in general, I think the physicality and superior optimism of modern players would bowl over players lifted directly out of a prior era. Even today’s hitters can’t touch Mason Miller!
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