World Baseball Classic 2026 (Info + Games)

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

The popular narrative right now is mexico has to score 5 or more runs if they win in order for USA to advance.

https://www.mlb.com/news/world-baseball ... -scenarios

Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no scenario in which Mexico could win Wednesday’s game without advancing.

Assuming a nine-inning game, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more and loses. But Italy would advance if it loses but gives up four or fewer runs.

This is all over the place. It feels like people have taken this to heart. But, I think the math is completely wrong.

Tie breaker is runs allowed / defensive outs (I'm assuming recorded by the team).

USA has allowed 17 runs (8 to ITA, 3 to MEX, 1 to GB, and 5 to BRA). They have played 9 defensive innings every game. So 9x3x4 = 108 defensive outs. 17/108 is their tiebreaker number.

ITA has allowed 10 runs thus far (6 to USA, 4 to GB, 0 to BRA) obviously playing all 9 innings as they won every game. To keep it simple, just assume they lose 6-0 tonight. They're visitors and won't pitch the 9th. Their tie breaker number is 16/105.

16/105 < 17/108 .... so if ITA loses, Mexico has to score 7 or more for USA to advance...no?

Mexico's tie breaker number is the lowest but irrelevant as USA has the head to head if ITA wins.

[CardsofSTL]

According to DeRosa the USA team got trashed after beating Mexico. Great plan guys.

[Mary1966]

I’m of Italian descent so I’m proud that Italy upset the US. My favorite WBC memory is that of Sidney Ponson and the Netherlands, a team where most of the players had second jobs, beat the Dominican Republic not once but twice, when the DR had a raft of MLB stars.

[Mdcardfan60]

The popular narrative right now is mexico has to score 5 or more runs if they win in order for USA to advance.

https://www.mlb.com/news/world-baseball ... -scenarios

Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no scenario in which Mexico could win Wednesday’s game without advancing.

Assuming a nine-inning game, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more and loses. But Italy would advance if it loses but gives up four or fewer runs.

This is all over the place. It feels like people have taken this to heart. But, I think the math is completely wrong.

Tie breaker is runs allowed / defensive outs (I'm assuming recorded by the team).

USA has allowed 17 runs (8 to ITA, 3 to MEX, 1 to GB, and 5 to BRA). They have played 9 defensive innings every game. So 9x3x4 = 108 defensive outs. 17/108 is their tiebreaker number.

ITA has allowed 10 runs thus far (6 to USA, 4 to GB, 0 to BRA) obviously playing all 9 innings as they won every game. To keep it simple, just assume they lose 6-0 tonight. They're visitors and won't pitch the 9th. Their tie breaker number is 16/105.

16/105 < 17/108 .... so if ITA loses, Mexico has to score 7 or more for USA to advance...no?

Mexico's tie breaker number is the lowest but irrelevant as USA has the head to head if ITA wins.

The runs allowed tie breaker only considers games between the tied teams. If Mexico wins without extras and scores five runs, Italy will have given up 11 runs in 17 innings (Mexico is home team so they wouldn’t play the bottom of the ninth). US has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings. So US wins the tie breaker. If Italy wins then there are no ties. Italy is 4-0, US 3-1, Mexico 2-2.

[CardsofSTL]

I love the Expos Twitter

[Mary1966]

Quarterfinals Bracket:

Korea vs. Dominican Republic
USA vs. Canada
Puerto Rico vs. Italy
Japan vs. Venezuela

Should be good games.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

The popular narrative right now is mexico has to score 5 or more runs if they win in order for USA to advance.

https://www.mlb.com/news/world-baseball ... -scenarios

Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no scenario in which Mexico could win Wednesday’s game without advancing.

Assuming a nine-inning game, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more and loses. But Italy would advance if it loses but gives up four or fewer runs.

This is all over the place. It feels like people have taken this to heart. But, I think the math is completely wrong.

Tie breaker is runs allowed / defensive outs (I'm assuming recorded by the team).

USA has allowed 17 runs (8 to ITA, 3 to MEX, 1 to GB, and 5 to BRA). They have played 9 defensive innings every game. So 9x3x4 = 108 defensive outs. 17/108 is their tiebreaker number.

ITA has allowed 10 runs thus far (6 to USA, 4 to GB, 0 to BRA) obviously playing all 9 innings as they won every game. To keep it simple, just assume they lose 6-0 tonight. They're visitors and won't pitch the 9th. Their tie breaker number is 16/105.

16/105 < 17/108 .... so if ITA loses, Mexico has to score 7 or more for USA to advance...no?

Mexico's tie breaker number is the lowest but irrelevant as USA has the head to head if ITA wins.

The runs allowed tie breaker only considers games between the tied teams. If Mexico wins without extras and scores five runs, Italy will have given up 11 runs in 17 innings (Mexico is home team so they wouldn’t play the bottom of the ninth). US has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings. So US wins the tie breaker. If Italy wins then there are no ties. Italy is 4-0, US 3-1, Mexico 2-2.

Makes sense. Thanks.

[CardsofSTL]

[CardsofSTL]

[Radbird]

Italy up 8-2 in the 4th.

Yadi no está contento.