Got your shot?

[InvincibleCakeEater]

Second shot done this morning.

[Socnorb11]

Second Moderna for me this morning. Actually less sore than the first time, so far.

[heyzeus]

Second Moderna for me this morning. Actually less sore than the first time, so far.

I had the same experience. First time, sore a few days. Second time barely felt a thing.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

Second shot done this morning.

Update: there all is aching

[Radbird]

This is really discouraging.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

This is really discouraging.

I'll play devils advocate here. In an ideal world, yes, you'll have 100% of people vaccinated with both doses. Nothing is going to be ideal though. And, the 5 M people in the tweet represent less than 5% of those vaccinated with one dose. Further, there is some protection from a single dose. (Both moderna and pfizer were ~50% effective at preventing symptomatic with a single dose prior to the 2nd dose). I'd venture a guess that efficacy goes up with time (similar to the J&J) even with a single dose. I'd also venture a guess that 5% that 'missed' their 2nd dose either will get it eventually over the coming months or the accounting is simply off (eg, someone got 1 dose at a Dept of Health clinic and their 2nd dose at a family clinic and both are being counted as the 1st dose or someone got the 1st dose in one state and the 2nd dose in another state both being counted as 1st dose - again we're talkin about 100M people, there are going to be some anomolies )

What I find truly discouraging is the vast resistance to the vaccination. Period. Vaccines have been available to everyone over the age of 16 or whatever for the past month or so. The seven day rolling average is already declining (this could be due to the J&J pause, but I don't think so). Also, it's important to note, a lot of doses going on now are 2nd doses that don't increase the % of people receiving at least one dose, this number (people with 1 dose) has declined in Arkansas for example seemingly every day the past 2-3 weeks meaning more doses are 2nd doses than 1st doses.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~USA

I think we're about at saturation of those that want it getting it and that's just over 40% of the country. Maybe we get to 50% in the next few weeks, but given about 20% of the population (guess, don't quote me) isn't eligile due to age, about 30% of people probably just won't get it...uh, we're going to come up quite a bit short of the needed threshold for any type of meaningful 'herd protection'.

All that to say, 5M half vaxed people don't really worry me, it's the 100M people that won't get vaxed at all that is discouraging.

[cardsfantx]

how many of the people that haven't/won't get it, have already had the disease? If that number is substantial (which I'm guessing it is, and that may be another reason people aren't getting it, is they feel they have some immunity), then you're closer to the "herd immunity"

[G. Keenan]

2nd Pfizer this morning. Feeling fine.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

how many of the people that haven't/won't get it, have already had the disease? If that number is substantial (which I'm guessing it is, and that may be another reason people aren't getting it, is they feel they have some immunity), then you're closer to the "herd immunity"

I've wondered the same thing. But, there is so much unknown that I always quit figuring it out because I'm not smart enough/dont' have enough info.

On the one hand, we have vaccines which is a pretty well known quantity. Easily quantifiable. On the other, we have positive tests. Also, easily quantifiable, but relatively useless info. There have been ~33M infecitons in the US which is about ~10% of the population. Obviously this is low. The CDC offers that up to 8x as many infections have occured as positive tests would indicate. So, what 80% of the US has had covid? Sounds a bit high. And, it's really not quantifiable. On top of that, while there's hints, the amount of immunity that lingers is somewhat unknown though reports have found it ranges from80% effective early on to 99%+ with time (iirc). Regardless, it's difficult to quantify. Finally, is there any correlation between those with vax hesitancy and those that have been infected? In my mind, the answer is yes, but it's not quantifiable at this point.

If you want to be optimistic, you can assume there is a strong correlation between those with vax hesitancy and covid infections (say 75%) and you can assume there are 5x as many actual infections as reported positive tests. And, let's assume we get to 50% of the population vaccinated. In that scenario, 50% has protection from the vaccine, 50% have been infected and have some level of immunity. 75% of those infected won't get vaccinated so of the 50% infected, 75% are anti-vaxers which is 38% of the population. 50% vaxed +38% infected = 88% and wala, that's a pretty strong level of herd protection. Of course that's just making numbers up and doesn't account at all for children. But, whatever. There's your path to optimism Also, I'm not sure if that is statistically even the correct way to approach it, but whatever. As noted, I'm not smart enough to figure it out.

[Richie Allen]

Second Moderna for me this morning. Actually less sore than the first time, so far.

I had the same experience. First time, sore a few days. Second time barely felt a thing.

Same for me as well. Just enough of a soreness in my shoulder that I knew they gave me the shot.