Random musings

[lukethedrifter]

Wonder if we could peel the Table Rock tragedy off on its own thread. Feels funny making Seinfeldian observations in the same thread

[Freed Roger]

Edit: I see the Branson tragedy has been discussed here already. I know they (i.e. the Branson Mayor) are saying this storm was fairly sudden, and sort of from the north (which is never good). But it was on the radar and being warned about, for sure.

I was about 120 miles away in Ozarks coming off a float on the Current River that late afternoon. Even there I was hearing about the potential weather in SW MO. Ranger I ran into mentioned the shaky weather to me around 4:30. A tour of the radio stations then, I was hearing warnings to takie cover in Ozark, Taney Counties well before. I remember it distinctly, because the warnings were such a contrast to what I was experiencing I was weighing not camping out for the night, though wasn't in the severe warning storm zone ( I still camped, it was fine)

The next morning, in Salem MO, I was surprised and sad as heck to hear there were people out on the water.

Branson region and the entire Ozarks are prone to volatile weather in the spring/summer. Anyone down there for significant length of time should know this. For example, it's not the really Ozarks, but Joplin is close by.

I've had some bizarre experiences down there camping with weather. Washington State Park, - which is maybe 40 miles south of St. L - we got pounded in a thunderstorm and high winds all damn night, after a bright hot sunny day. Info was scarce -I managed to tune into KMOX... which was broadcasting the Cards game AT Busch with no bad weather.

These are the other factors down in Southern MO, with the all the trees and hills - you don't see the weather coming. And your phone dies quickly out of range for checking weather, and radio stations are kind of random too. And you're there for recreation, so you are more out for fun than info. Thus, It's sneaky dangerous with weather in the Ozarks. Hence, that awful story of dad and two boys dying a few years ago, out for a day hike. AW, ICE - do you concur?

...Anyway, a commercial enterprise, even something so normally laid-back and benign as the Ducks, do not have an excuse for not being aware of the weather in this day and age. I know the boat configurations and capabilities of the Duck operators were factors in this tragedy, but the way they blew it with the weather.... It really makes no sense.

Last thought, and wondering if AW, ICE have any insight. When we do touristy stuff lon vactions, ike the Ducks , seems like of the workers are seasonal help, not necessarily from the region or even from the US. I wonder if this was a factor - inexperience of the two employees, and not proper oversight.

[IMADreamer]

The storms were definitely in the forecast. Here is a blurb from the Storm Prediction Centers convective outlook for that day.

The potential for one or more early day thunderstorm clusters complicates the forecast scenario on Thursday. Any such cluster may present a localized severe wind risk early in the day, especially across portions of MO ... Further south down the Mississippi Valley, a more conditional severe risk will be present. Any early day thunderstorm cluster that survives may rejuvenate across portions of southern MO/northern AR during the afternoon. Later-day storms that initiate further north may also merge into a cluster that moves southeastward into this region. Some damaging wind risk would be possible in either scenario, with some marginal hail risk associated with any more discrete convection that may develop.

People in our country tend to ignore the weather. If you own a business that employs people outside and particularly if your customers lives could be in danger because of the weather there is no excuse for not knowing what's happening. Our govt has put in place an incredible system of weather forecasting and in 2018 weather does not just "come out of no where." I realize I'm maybe a bit more weather nerdy than most but my job and employees very much depend on the weather that day, and my day always starts by reading the SPC outlook and checking the local NWS forecast. That way I know not to have someone out in harms way.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Regarding weather patterns

I remember being on Beaver Lake (in Northwest ARkansas....goes into the white river iirc that feeds table rock) and there was some pretty strong storms up to the north. A friend pointed them out to me and I was like....who cares, weather never comes from the north. About 15 minutes later we were in the [expletive] as the storm was, in fact, coming from the north. Weather forecast had mentioned possible thunderstorms, but I'm pretty sure that was the daily forecast for the summer back then.

Similarly, and I think I've shared this story on here before as well. About 12 years ago we went on a float trip. The weather forecast was chance of thunderstorm but nothing major. Until that chance hit...hard. Severe thunderstorm and a tornado ripped through southwest Missouri not far from where we were floating. And, at that point, there's really no good option. Do you pull up onto shore and sit under a tree or do you stay in your metal canoe and float down a body of water. Either way, lightning is a threat. I think we pulled up onto shore and just rode it out away from everything except a couple aluminum cans.

But, back then we didn't have cell phones showing live radar images. We would check the forecast in the morning. And, if you never went out on a day that there was a chance for inclement weather, you would have never gone out. But, today, especially if you're operating a business responsible for the safety of others, there really isn't an excuse for not knowing what was coming but who makes the ultimate decision. That's why I'm curious as to what the NTSB will recommend regarding the incident at Table Rock. The NTSB can't legislate regulations, only make recommendations. But, whose responsibility is it, ultimately, to prevent being in a situation similar to the one on table rock. Is it the crew? If you look at airplanes, the pilots have a large responsibility in this during the flight and I believe the airlines/airports work with the FAA to ground planes in weather events at specific airports. Still, pilots have extensive training and make a salary that compensates mid air decisions/responsibilities. Not sure you can pay someone $10/hour (or whatever) and expect them to be reading radars and projecting weather.

As a side note, pilots also make weather miscalculations. One of the more infamous examples is the Air France 447 flight where they (edited)didn't detour to miss the first storm, then ended up in the second one which they didn't see because the first storm masked it which enabled condensation over their pitot tubes to freeze preventing the complicated on board flight system from getting correct air pressure readings necessary to calculate air speed. As such, the pilots thought they were going too fast or too slow and lost trust in their instrumentation. Then, they incorrectly pitched the nose up and reduced power which caused a stall and ultimately crashed into the ocean.

That's not really relevant to this case, but if they can make errors with their massive technology advantage over a cell phone and after extensive training, it's entirely possible/likely that duck boat operators will as well. Of course, in this case, there is ample support - though not directly - from meteorologists. Using that, if you prevent operations like duck boats from giving tours when there is even a watch, that's going to ground them prematurely in many cases. If you rely on warnings, will that be enough time to get off the water safely? This question goes beyond just duck boats. Obivously there are myriads of commercial enterprises that are reliant on good weather and endangered by adverse conditions.

Regarding who operates duck boats and similar operations, I don't have the first clue. But, I get the feeling it isn't a full time job with much training. It's, hey, let's get someone who can pick up a bull horn and keep people entertained for an hour while showing them around a city and who will also for as little as possible (i.e., not someone that people should reasonably rely on to be making difficult decisions). And, that's not to say it's an undesirable job by any means.

[Freed Roger]

I think we pulled up onto shore and just rode it out away from everything except a couple aluminum cans.

Beer Cans - sounds like you have the same survival priorities as me. If I were about to dump on the water, I'd probably instinctively go for the cooler, rather than my paddle etc.

But, back then we didn't have cell phones showing live radar images. We would check the forecast in the morning. And, if you never went out on a day that there was a chance for inclement weather, you would have never gone out.

I'm generally a fair weathered camper, floater etc - if forecast looks like it will mess with casual enjoyment then I often skip it or change course. (not always - a little bit of weather deviation sometimes clears out the riff-raff and makes for fun time ruling the woods/rivers etc.

Anyways - smart phones are awesome for the outdoor activity enjoyment - in some ways the technology has made this a bit of a "golden age" for outdoor rec - weather, maps, photos, info on pre or post activity supplies and beer, a call for help etc -it's all theoretically at your disposal. Around ~2007-ish in the Blackberry era, I was driving up the Michigan coast with my daughter and looking for a CG - I was bummed because it was raining - but I looked at my blackberry which produced a DOS-looking text weather report and could tell I we would be able to camp in dry weather an hour north. kind of a viola moment.

Often times I'll just snap a picture of a map, to have on my phone and don't take a real map. the tech does not replace experience and local knowledge, but it does help get you out there with base level of confidence.

But - as you know- the phones aren't reliable. The battery goes quickly. I've had mine stop functioning and unable to recharge due to overheating and/or moisture. Reception scarce. In a serious situation, the phone may just give enough info to make you dangerous. When the dad & 2 boys that died of hypothermia after getting lost on the Ozark Trail - I suspect he had some false confidence in his cell phone for weather and position and SOS.

Sidenote- messing with your smart phone while moving can be hazardous, like trying to get it functioning, or recharging etc. My phone is getting old, and inevitably requires me to mess with plugging it into a portable charger etc. It's easy to get compulsive about making it work! It's not as dangerous as doing it while driving a car. But you can get lost, or say, run a watervessel into a hazard with your nose on a phone, instead of paying attention to surroundings. I've almost dumped a few times taking pics or messing with a phone.

I really like having my basic GPS watch. Mine isn't fancy enough to show a map actively- but informs me roughly how far I've gone, and pace etc. Good to know when having fun, and deciding if you can make a run for it, vs hunker down.

A word on radio - I guess there is a thing called weather radios still. But as far as your car radio - stations don't seem local anymore. National weather service - you need to have a familiarity with the points they are talking about. i.e. where the hell is north Phelps county etc in relation to where you are. These reports aren't user-friendly for the non-local traveller.

But, today, especially if you're operating a business responsible for the safety of others, there really isn't an excuse for not knowing what was coming but who makes the ultimate decision. That's why I'm curious as to what the NTSB will recommend regarding the incident at Table Rock. The NTSB can't legislate regulations, only make recommendations.

Agreed. The limitations in following the weather we were mentioning aboved don't apply to a business operating off fixed position on a lake. And yeah, an overreaction with weather reports and warnings - that could cause eventual complacency for all the false alarms. But still, no excuse for a business like this - they should be looking at a standardized weather service reporting and have a feel for understanding their reports.

Regarding who operates duck boats and similar operations, I don't have the first clue. But, I get the feeling it isn't a full time job with much training. It's, hey, let's get someone who can pick up a bull horn and keep people entertained for an hour while showing them around a city and who will also for as little as possible (i.e., not someone that people should reasonably rely on to be making difficult decisions). And, that's not to say it's an undesirable job by any means.

that is my impression as well

Anyways -I'm sort of a hobbyist - nerd like Dreamer is on weather about the outdoorsy survival SNR stuff. I could chat about this sort of stuff all day, but better get outside to enjoy a nice day.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

If you're going to be in open water, a cooler makes for a great flotation device assuming you get rid of all the ice/water and can keep the lid closed.

[Freed Roger]

If you're going to be in open water, a cooler makes for a great flotation device assuming you get rid of all the ice/water and can keep the lid closed.

Great info!

Also - may make sense to pre-load many of your beers into koozies, the old school thick ones - you can never have too many koozies. Extra buoyancy.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Well, the koozies would just add weight to the cooler that would actually reduce it's buoyancy. But, now that I'm thinking about it, you could modify a cooler by attaching training wheel stands to the cooler, then get rid of the training wheels and attach little pontoons (aka big ass noodles) instead. Put a 2x6 on top of the pontoons and, wala, perfect survival device. You could hold onto the pontoons to stay afloat and kick your way to safety. Plus, you'd have the beer in the cooler with a place to rest it as you kick. Trick would be to get the pontoons at the right elevation. You'd want the cooler providing most of the buoyuancy with the pontoons doing little other than stabilizing it and being there for people. Also, you could add wheels below the pontoons to make it mobile.

Might need to take this to shark tank.

[G. Keenan]

Back in '96 or '97 my family and friends were canoe camping somewhere on the banks of the Huzzah Memorial Day weekend. There was a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast before we left but we didn't let that deter us. We camped the first night probably 5 or 6 miles into the float on a random gravel bank. That night was totally uneventful. No rain. We woke up the next morning and saw that the water level had gone up a little bit, but nothing major. Then, within the space of about 20 - 30 minutes the water began rising incredibly fast. We had to scramble to drag our canoes and gear onto higher ground and into the woods. A couple of our tents got washed away before we could get them taken down. The river turned into a raging muddy torrent so fast it was crazy. No way could we paddle out in those conditions so we just had to wait it out in the woods. We followed some power lines until we found an old abandoned farm house with a ramshackle covered porch to sleep on. It was straight out of a horror movie. The next day we found the road and hitchhiked back to the canoe rental so they could come back and pick us up. The water will still too dangerous to float after 48 hours. When we got back to StL we saw on the news that some people had died in that flash flooding. The rain happened upstream from us during the night so we had no idea. Thank god we woke up early enough the next day or we could have all drowned in our tents when that wall of water hit.

[wart57]

Just hit 115 here in PHX - new record for this date. At least we have that going for us...