"not worthy of its own thread" offseason thread

[Magneto2.0]

Lynn had a 3.43 ERA in 186 IP, better than Nelson, Arrieta, DeGrom, Nola, Darvish, or Carlos Martinez. It almost certainly wasn't sustainable given his career and that FIP, but that production still happened. He led Cardinal pitchers in bWAR at 3.1, Martinez (2.9) was the only other pitcher above 1.5.

This is a good example of the fallacy of using last season as a baseline, across 15-25 players even if you don't expect big swings you need to start with expectations instead of last year's results to get the best idea of what type of team you have.

He was 6th in fWAR on our staff last season. (1.4)

[Socnorb11]

We've overvaluing Lynn. He was a 1.4 WAR pitcher last year. Not THAT hard to replace.

Agreed. But, it would be a lot easier to replace THAT with a proven, quality starter. We might not actually replace Lynn's 1.4 WAR production with Mikolas. Probably should. Definitely might not. We really have no idea, despite what any projections or scouts say.

Also, if 1.4 WAR was the bar for this club then why did they dump Leake, who is actually a proven, guaranteed lock for 2-3 WAR? Heck, Leake had 3.1 WAR last year, most of it for us, and we're not talking about how we're going to replace that production. Between Leake and Lynn exiting and the 1.4 WAR that Weaver gave us last year, we have to somehow get 5.9 WAR out of Weaver and Mikolas next year.

I can almost guarantee you that we won't get nearly 6 WAR out of those two. It's possible, but very doubtful.

I just keep coming back to the fact that we're simply not as secure in the pitching department, particularly the bullpen, as we were at this point last year. We're putting a lot on Weaver and Mikolas, both in terms of production and innings, and that seems like a huge risk. There's no top end to the pen to take some of the pressure off the youngsters, who have already proven to be incredibly volatile. Tyler Lyons, for example... Great last year; replacement level production every other season. He might be the best arm out there. We have no one who can even be confused as a legitimate closer. Offense definitely looks better right now, which is why we can say we "have a good chance at a playoff spot" this year rather than just on the outside looking in.

Go get one good starter and/or (preferably and) a great closer and we have a real shot at the Cubs. We absolutely should do everything we can to make that happen.

Leake only put up 1.8 WAR for the Cards last year.

Wacha and Martinez were the only guys who put 2 WAR or better. That kind of production isn't hard to replace, by committee, or whatever.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

Would be been nice to entertain acquiring Solarte from the (now) Blue Jays. He's currently backup to both Tulo and Travis. So it really wouldn't have been any different than us creating a backup to DeJong(specifically). But Solarte plays all over the infield so he would've allowed us to add an experienced player, that's got more to add than Garcia. Or you could send Voit back to Memphis. He went to Tor for a package of outfielders that we could've easily matched.. But the rigid roster building formulas the FO uses probably didn't even consider this an option.

Now, if Tor acquired Solarte as a precursor to them selling The Don to us.. Then ill drink a tall glass of STFU...

[misterManager]

Solarte Is Not Good. He's roughly in Aledmys Diaz territory projection-wise, and will cost more than Garcia, Munoz, or Shrock; guys that he'd be blocking for the next two+ years.

Can I say as well that we needed to be ahead of the Dodgers on the Scott Alexander trade? Swooping up a guy who quietly just broke out and who is under control for a long time, from the left side, would have been huge for the bullpen. I'm assuming/hoping we get Soria from the White Sox but that's no guarantee, despite the obvious question of why the Sox need a closer next year.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

MLB power rankings have Yank 146 vs Diaz's 292. Diaz had one good offensive year, and that's the only reason he's even on the list. He proved to barely hold down the SS position in StL, while Solarte plays all over the infield(something you can't do if you have a frying pan for a glove and swim fins on your feet; see Diaz.).

[misterManager]

Fair enough--on the strength of the bat alone, though, they're not going to range too far from each other. Solarte is still living on the strength of his debut in New York, sort of like Diaz would/will live off the first year in St. Louis.

[Padsfs]

Also, if 1.4 WAR was the bar for this club then why did they dump Leake, who is actually a proven, guaranteed lock for 2-3 WAR? Heck, Leake had 3.1 WAR last year, most of it for us, and we're not talking about how we're going to replace that production. Between Leake and Lynn exiting and the 1.4 WAR that Weaver gave us last year, we have to somehow get 5.9 WAR out of Weaver and Mikolas next year.

Leake only put up 1.8 WAR for the Cards last year.

Wacha and Martinez were the only guys who put 2 WAR or better. That kind of production isn't hard to replace, by committee, or whatever.

If you include hitting, Leake put up 2.0 fWAR for the Cardinals. He still, for the year had 3.1 pitching fWAR, 3.3 fWAR total. I'm curious what he would have done had he stayed on the Cardinals toward the end of the year.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

Fair enough--on the strength of the bat alone, though, they're not going to range too far from each other. Solarte is still living on the strength of his debut in New York, sort of like Diaz would/will live off the first year in St. Louis.

He hit a career high longballeros(18) last year, and could eclipse that in Tor. Nobody really knows what Diaz is; except being subpar defensively, and that the league figured him out as a hitter. I'm glad though, that Solarte is out of the NL. He murdered us..

But hey, this has spurred the rumor mill that the Jays are preparing to flip Donaldson..

[dmarx114]

Still think, even if I was overvaluing Lynn(but TT beat me to it), we got worse in the pen. Cecil is gross. Brebbia(you trust him?) is a lock, Tui(could take HUGE stride forward, or he could be Mitchell Boggs and disappear), Bowman(can he rebound after flaming out in the 2nd half, or will the career-high innings use leave him gassed this spring?), etc..

So if we got better on offense, broke even in the rotation, and got worse in the pen; we still end up a less talented team than the team that couldn't grab a WC spot in 2017.

Cecil was better last year than the guy everyone here covets (Alex Colome).

Cecil is good. Lyons is pretty damn good. Gregerson is good. Some combination of guys like Flaherty, Reyes, Josh Lucas, etc. will be included in the pen.

I'd like to add a closer. Beyond that, the pen is in pretty good shape. I don't think it's worse than last year.

Can this be true?

Without looking it up, it seemed like Cecil was great in blow outs, but terrible when trying to protect a lead.

Not sure what to make of that for this season.

[dmarx114]

It's fair, I think, to see that they've replaced Lynn and Piscotty with Mikolas and Ozuna, remember how exciting the early part of the off-season was, when the Cardinals looked like they were genuinely trying to move the needle, and wonder if this is it.

It's interesting that adding a 27-year-old who hit .310/.380/.550 with 37 home runs isn't "moving the needle."

I think its fair, that if you move the needle one direction(Ozuna) and got added value(Ozuna>Piscotty), but moved the the needle back the other way (Miles<Lynn; Miles might be great, but is virtually unknown and has pretty big shoes to fill) in another deal, then further moved the needle backwards losing experienced bullpen arms and not replacing them... Yet(?). Well, on the whole its not moving the needle much, or in the right direction. Moving the needle is the accumulation of all your moves. They've changed the team, not improved it as a whole.

I think the offense is now better than what it was last year. Ozuna over Piscotty is a nice upgrade.

But I don't think the bullpen, as it currently stands, can be counted on to not blow the games that were blown last season. We still need 2 reliable bullpen guys.

And I think we need 1 more starter.

My preference would be to sign Arrieta and move Wacha to the bullpen, killing 2 birds with one stone.