Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

[JL21]

Well... did we try to acquire WS players? Yes. Did we land any? No. We missed out on getting them. I'm certainly not making any arguments here about why we missed out and definitely not interested in debating the nuances of our failures last year.

All I'm saying is that we've had chances to land the kinds of impact players that we covet in the past and we didn't land them. Mo is definitely interested in Stanton. And he's also probably trying to position himself to have a great shot at other players he desires this time. I don't think he's going to let the Marlins move their OF'ers without us getting one.

I really don’t see this happening. It’s not Stanton or bust—at least I hope not—but I don’t think Ozuna or Yelich is the backup.

I could see Ozuna as a possible backup just because I think the asking price will be less. I think Yelich would be the preferred backup, but the Marlins should (rightly) be asking for a lot for him- substantially more than Ozuna.

Now... I don't know if they're THE backup plan. I think they're probably part of a larger backup plan. Don't get Giancarlo? Try for Donaldson. Don't get Donaldson? Circle back with the Marlins. Or whatever.

[MrCrowesGarden]

Well... did we try to acquire WS players? Yes. Did we land any? No. We missed out on getting them. I'm certainly not making any arguments here about why we missed out and definitely not interested in debating the nuances of our failures last year.

All I'm saying is that we've had chances to land the kinds of impact players that we covet in the past and we didn't land them. Mo is definitely interested in Stanton. And he's also probably trying to position himself to have a great shot at other players he desires this time. I don't think he's going to let the Marlins move their OF'ers without us getting one.

I really don’t see this happening. It’s not Stanton or bust—at least I hope not—but I don’t think Ozuna or Yelich is the backup.

I could see Ozuna as a possible backup just because I think the asking price will be less. I think Yelich would be the preferred backup, but the Marlins should (rightly) be asking for a lot for him- substantially more than Ozuna.

Now... I don't know if they're THE backup plan. I think they're probably part of a larger backup plan. Don't get Giancarlo? Try for Donaldson. Don't get Donaldson? Circle back with the Marlins. Or whatever.

That’s kind of what Goold said this morning. He also went back on the Carlos Gonzalez [expletive].

[Fat Strat]

I really don’t see this happening. It’s not Stanton or bust—at least I hope not—but I don’t think Ozuna or Yelich is the backup.

Ozuna and Yelich are the two names that we have heard consistently from the Cards over the last two years. Maybe the Marlins don't move them, I think that's in question, but there is no question that the Cards are very interested in them.

This is just my opinion, but I think that once the Marlins start selling, they'll just sell. Especially knowing we are sitting there ready to offer them some high quality arms and upside MLB ready OF'ers in return. They know they're better off long term with giving us Yelich/Ozuna and clearing some more payroll while getting O'Neill (or whoever), Weaver, and Alcantara back. That's three roster spots filled by a player who will probably produce pretty well while only costing the league minimum for years. All for a player who will either be getting much more expensive around the time the Marlins are ready to compete or will be a free agent before then.

Edit: I would still rather have either of the Marlins OF'ers over Donaldson, though it is admittedly debatable. I'm also not convinced that Donaldson is even available. With nothing out there about him, I'm starting to think he's not really gettable.

[Fat Strat]

That’s kind of what Goold said this morning. He also went back on the Carlos Gonzalez [expletive].

That [expletive] is real. We might as well accept it.

Don't understand it, but the Cards are really feeding that to Goold and it would not surprise me at all if it was the path we took, considering the Cards past success with Berkman and Beltran as place fillers.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I would 100% take Donaldson over any non-Stanton Marlins OFer. Again—much of the appeal of Yelich and Ozuna are the contracts. I get that contracts matter, but the Cardinals are at a point where talent ought to mean more.

[MrCrowesGarden]

That’s kind of what Goold said this morning. He also went back on the Carlos Gonzalez [expletive].

That [expletive] is real. We might as well accept it.

Don't understand it, but the Cards are really feeding that to Goold and it would not surprise me at all if it was the path we took, considering the Cards past success with Berkman and Beltran as place fillers.

Then that’s a move that if it’s the signature acquisition of the offseason, they’ll miss the playoffs again. It’ll certainly cost Matheny his job and start ratcheting up the heat on Mozeliak and Girsch.

[Hoot45]

That’s kind of what Goold said this morning. He also went back on the Carlos Gonzalez [expletive].

That [expletive] is real. We might as well accept it.

Don't understand it, but the Cards are really feeding that to Goold and it would not surprise me at all if it was the path we took, considering the Cards past success with Berkman and Beltran as place fillers.

A few pages ago I posted something about the Cardinals feeding Goold that info so they could keep up a narrative with Miami that they have other options and are willing to walk away from Stanton. Goold has mentioned before on his podcasts that this is a thing they do. Beyond that my opinion is pure speculation, but I believe CarGo is a total bluff. Of course I could be wrong and would be very disappointed if that were the case.

[dmarx114]

That’s kind of what Goold said this morning. He also went back on the Carlos Gonzalez [expletive].

That [expletive] is real. We might as well accept it.

Don't understand it, but the Cards are really feeding that to Goold and it would not surprise me at all if it was the path we took, considering the Cards past success with Berkman and Beltran as place fillers.

But there were open spots that Berkman and Beltran needed to fill.

We have an OF logjam already. Cargo just doesn't make any sense.

[Hoot45]

I would 100% take Donaldson over any non-Stanton Marlins OFer. Again—much of the appeal of Yelich and Ozuna are the contracts. I get that contracts matter, but the Cardinals are at a point where talent ought to mean more.

Kind of inherent in the nice contracts is age. I much prefer the 26-somethings to the almost 32 year old. Wouldn't be unhappy with Donaldson though. I would just worry with him that in a couple years if he falls off a cliff we are back to where we are today.

[Fat Strat]

I would 100% take Donaldson over any non-Stanton Marlins OFer. Again—much of the appeal of Yelich and Ozuna are the contracts. I get that contracts matter, but the Cardinals are at a point where talent ought to mean more.

I'm not really seeing the talent difference here, and you know that I really like Donaldson.

If Donaldson was likely to be a 6-8 WAR player going forward, I would agree. But, he's not. He's 32, coming off a 5 WAR season, and going to cost 3x what Ozuna and Yelich cost + probably a comparable prospect package. Let's say that Donaldson doesn't fall off any cliffs, just shows his age, and settles in at a Matt Holliday like 4-5 WAR average value into his next contract. It's actually a pretty good comparison, I think... Holliday was a consistent 6-7 WAR producer in his 20's, not unlike Donaldson, who plays a more premium position. In his 30's, Holliday settled in at a still excellent 4 WAR average and never crossed 4.5 again.

Yelich, at a mere 25 years, is already a consistent 4.5 WAR player with upside for more.

I've never really thought Ozuna was at that level, so I won't make that argument. He did, though, produce a WAR very close to 5 last year. And has another year just below 4, so he's certainly capable of being a 3-5 WAR player on average now that he's fully in his prime.

Unless you think Donaldson will defy the age odds, there's every reason to think that Yelich at least can match him, and considering upside, injuries, contract status, and even value of position (if Yelich is a CF'er for us), I have to go toward Yelich.

And, again, I like Donaldson.