Outer Space Thread

[jim]

http://www.space.com/33061-universe-exp ... ubble.html

Universe expanding faster than thought. Does this change the estimate of the age?

[Arthur Dent]

I'm talking about the odds of you, in particular, being born.

Or think of it like this. The average splooge is 3.7 ml. There are somewhere between 15 million and 400 million spermatazoa per ml. So, let's just say 600 million spermatazoa per ejaculation. Each sperm results in, presumably, a unique individual. Individuals procreate multiple times generally to get pregnant.

The odds of your mom birthing you, in particular, are extremely small, no? Even assuming your mom and your dad were trying to create you when you were conceived, the odds of you, the AD that was conceived are incredibly small. If one of the other couple hundred million, at a minimum, tadpoles entered the egg instead of the one that created you, you wouldn't be here.

If your mom had been with another guy, you wouldn't be here. If your dad had been with another woman, you wouldn't be here. If your mom hadn't been born (same odds of you being born), you wouldn't be here. If your dad hadn't been born, you wouldn't be here. If they had never met, you wouldn't be here. Go back thousands of generations, and the odds of you being born are infinitesimally small.

Now throw in the whole thing of the earth being a habitable planet and your species appearing and evolving....and yeah, the odds of you being born are basically non-existent.

You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing! -Richard Feynman

[Arthur Dent]

I believe in the simulation argument, but that doesn't mean you have to believe we are in a simulation. Only one of these things has to be true:

(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;

(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);

(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

What a bunch of BS. This simulation stuff is just stoner talk hyped up with gee whiz tech babble. It's hilarious that all these Silicon Valley dudes take it seriously.

[Michael]

I believe in the simulation argument, but that doesn't mean you have to believe we are in a simulation. Only one of these things has to be true:

(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;

(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);

(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

What a bunch of BS. This simulation stuff is just stoner talk hyped up with gee whiz tech babble. It's hilarious that all these Silicon Valley dudes take it seriously.

What is BS?

I guess the only thing I would add to point one is civilizations may not go extinct, but they are incapable of creating a simulation like our reality.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I'm talking about the odds of you, in particular, being born.

Or think of it like this. The average splooge is 3.7 ml. There are somewhere between 15 million and 400 million spermatazoa per ml. So, let's just say 600 million spermatazoa per ejaculation. Each sperm results in, presumably, a unique individual. Individuals procreate multiple times generally to get pregnant.

The odds of your mom birthing you, in particular, are extremely small, no? Even assuming your mom and your dad were trying to create you when you were conceived, the odds of you, the AD that was conceived are incredibly small. If one of the other couple hundred million, at a minimum, tadpoles entered the egg instead of the one that created you, you wouldn't be here.

If your mom had been with another guy, you wouldn't be here. If your dad had been with another woman, you wouldn't be here. If your mom hadn't been born (same odds of you being born), you wouldn't be here. If your dad hadn't been born, you wouldn't be here. If they had never met, you wouldn't be here. Go back thousands of generations, and the odds of you being born are infinitesimally small.

Now throw in the whole thing of the earth being a habitable planet and your species appearing and evolving....and yeah, the odds of you being born are basically non-existent.

You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing! -Richard Feynman

Did you just agree with me/make my point. Yes someone/something is going to exist. The odds of it being you/license plate #ARW357 are still incredibly small. Is it amazing? Well, yes. It's pretty amazing to be here.

[jim]

I'm talking about the odds of you, in particular, being born.

Or think of it like this. The average splooge is 3.7 ml. There are somewhere between 15 million and 400 million spermatazoa per ml. So, let's just say 600 million spermatazoa per ejaculation. Each sperm results in, presumably, a unique individual. Individuals procreate multiple times generally to get pregnant.

The odds of your mom birthing you, in particular, are extremely small, no? Even assuming your mom and your dad were trying to create you when you were conceived, the odds of you, the AD that was conceived are incredibly small. If one of the other couple hundred million, at a minimum, tadpoles entered the egg instead of the one that created you, you wouldn't be here.

If your mom had been with another guy, you wouldn't be here. If your dad had been with another woman, you wouldn't be here. If your mom hadn't been born (same odds of you being born), you wouldn't be here. If your dad hadn't been born, you wouldn't be here. If they had never met, you wouldn't be here. Go back thousands of generations, and the odds of you being born are infinitesimally small.

Now throw in the whole thing of the earth being a habitable planet and your species appearing and evolving....and yeah, the odds of you being born are basically non-existent.

You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing! -Richard Feynman

Did you just agree with me/make my point. Yes someone/something is going to exist. The odds of it being you/license plate #ARW357 are still incredibly small. Is it amazing? Well, yes. It's pretty amazing to be here.

It is amazing, but not surprising.

[jim]

I believe in the simulation argument, but that doesn't mean you have to believe we are in a simulation. Only one of these things has to be true:

(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;

(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);

(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

What a bunch of BS. This simulation stuff is just stoner talk hyped up with gee whiz tech babble. It's hilarious that all these Silicon Valley dudes take it seriously.

100% agreed with you. For some reason it irritates me more than amuses me, but yes I agree with you.

[Arthur Dent]

What is BS

The idea that observed reality may not be true or base reality is incredibly old and in some sense obviously true, though mostly pointless, like the idea that there's a elephant in the room with you right now, but it's just that no one can ever observe or interact with the elephant in any way. Ok, fine. This simulation stuff is exactly the same so long as it remains empty musings about totally hypothetical possibilities. Building this elaborate argument of impossibly high odds around a totally baseless premise is pretty funny though.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

No, it's not surprising that people are born. We agree on that.

MAybe...let's look at it differently.

If you went back 200 years, say. Okay, we're back in 1816 and we're going to let the events unfold again however they may (the way they did has no bearing on it). Now, what odds would you place on you being born again. Not the odds that your mom and dad would meet and have a child; the odds that you, the exact person with the same consciousness you now have, would be born again?

Or do you think that your consciousness would have just been assigned to some embryo somewhere regardless?

[jim]

I get what you are saying, which is essentially that the universe is so big and so vast with so many possible outcomes that is seems nearly impossible that one of them - the one we are experiencing - ever comes true. But it really is like the license plate example, or that the scores from yesterday's games turned out exactly as they did, or the weather, or ... on and on.

I don't believe my consciousness would have been reassigned.