2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

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BW23
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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by BW23 »

ghostrunner wrote:
BW23 wrote:Is it bad that I'm just leaning non-Trump now, too (like so many Republicans)?
Are you ok with Cruz, if he's the nominee?
I'm really not okay with anyone, honestly. But I purposely distance myself right now. Look at all the talk in this thread that has been dedicated to people that won't be around by August. We have little say on the nominee of each party.

I'm certainly better with Cruz over Trump. Any of them over Trump. I like things I hear from Rubio, but how much is substance? I'm admittedly very ill informed at this point. With a new job, I've had very little time to even care.

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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Michael »

Schlich wrote:
Michael wrote:
Schlich wrote:If it comes down to Trump and Cruz as the primary continues, which I think it will, Democrats really would be better off dropping the electability argument on both sides and focus on more substantial differences.
I'd rather take a sure thing than risk Trump or Cruz in the White House. In terms of what Hillary and The Bern will actually be able to achieve as presidents I doubt there's be a massive difference between them.
Sorry to rehash this...

Hillary is not a sure thing. 20 years of stigma and questionable decision making. Questionable voter turnout. I really hate to say it, and no one seems to want to-- she's a woman.

How close one is to the center of the political spectrum is not the main factor in electability. We were talking about the same thing in '08.

I actually agree that Hillary is not a sure thing and she's a weak candidate. I'm just saying she she has a much better shot in a general election than a self described socialist. The Bern will get absolutely eaten alive for that. That's worse than Walter Mondale calling himself a liberal. Plus, if we have a mix of Trump, Cruz and The Bern in the general election it will open the door wide open for a 3rd party candidate and then god only knows what will happen.

Yeah, I think electability still matters.

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JoeMcKim
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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by JoeMcKim »

Electability definitely should matter, who cares if you win some stupid inter party debate if you can't go onto winning a general election. Running a good campaign doesn't change the fact that there is no silver medal.

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Schlich
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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Schlich »

I think if the Republican nominee is Trump or Cruz, we are going to have an electability gap that is so massive that it would be a huge tactical mistake for liberals to not elect a true liberal.

The "socialist" point is overblown-- people who actually care about without any nuance are overwhelmingly voting R. Everyone in the country knows he's a "socialist," even if that's all they know about them, and he still beats Hillary in GE matchups which yes are terrible predictors but can still tell us about current opinion. Everyone knows he is a "socialist." Quotes intentional. Most people don't care.

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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

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Schlich wrote:The "socialist" point is overblown-- people who actually care about without any nuance are overwhelmingly voting R. Everyone in the country knows he's a "socialist," even if that's all they know about them, and he still beats Hillary in GE matchups which yes are terrible predictors but can still tell us about current opinion. Everyone knows he is a "socialist." Quotes intentional. Most people don't care.
I really disagree with this.

Americans say they are more likely to support an atheist than a socialist for president next year, according to the latest Gallup survey, released Monday.

Just 47 percent of Americans would vote for a socialist if their party nominated one, while 50 percent said they would not, while 58 percent said they would have no problem voting for an atheist in their party.
As for the women thing referenced above:
For women, 92 percent also said they would vote for one. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly Fiorina are the only women running in either major party.
Link


Image


The socialist thing is huge baggage.

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Schlich wrote:I think if the Republican nominee is Trump or Cruz, we are going to have an electability gap that is so massive that it would be a huge tactical mistake for liberals to not elect a true liberal.

The "socialist" point is overblown-- people who actually care about without any nuance are overwhelmingly voting R. Everyone in the country knows he's a "socialist," even if that's all they know about them, and he still beats Hillary in GE matchups which yes are terrible predictors but can still tell us about current opinion. Everyone knows he is a "socialist." Quotes intentional. Most people don't care.
The matchup stuff means nothing at this point. As always, see Dukakis, Michael and look at the 17 point lead he had in August. He lost by almost 8 it was a landslide in the Electoral College.

Sanders is not electable. Of all the candidates, the one with the experience and manners closest to a President is Hillary. Barring some unforeseen event, she will win.

Having said that, work for Sanders, get to know the other people working for Sanders, organize and start grooming the best possible candidates for local and state offices and then work to get them elected. Do that for a decade or two and then you could be able to elect someone with Bernie's agenda that would actually have a chance of getting that agenda made into law.

Goldwater lost in a landslide but Reagan won 16 years later. Learn from that.
Last edited by Joe Shlabotnik on January 27 16, 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Myles »

Schlich wrote:Mark me as preferring Trump to Cruz. Both as a nominee and as a president.
Yep. I'm on board.
I like that he pisses off both republicans and democrats.
I like that he spouts off without prepared speeches. He's more of an open book.
I think he will cross party lines more than any other candidate.
I like that he is not Clinton.
Last edited by Myles on January 27 16, 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by cardsfansince82 »

It's big enough baggage that Republicans are running fake negative ads hoping he gets the nomination. He's their only hope of winning.

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Schlich
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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Schlich »

I've seen that poll. I think that Bernie's candidacy has changed the conversation since then.

I'm really glad to see that 92% of people would vote for a woman, but I'm more worried about how latent sexist tendencies--like a lot of the criticisms surrounding her presentation-- would affect her.

I admit Bernie's socialism has baggage. I also know that Hillary has baggage. Trump and Cruz have baggage. Posturing is pointless, and we should vote for the candidate we think is best.

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Re: 2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

Post by Arthur Dent »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:Goldwater lost in a landslide but Reagan won 16 years later. Learn from that.
But what lesson do you draw from that? Nominating Goldwater was a mistake or a step towards victory?

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