2013 MLB Draft Thread

[phins]

The 2013 MLB Draft is another draft in which you could say it’s a down draft. Of course, it’s all relative when it comes to comparing drafts, and with the CBA being in effect for only the 2nd year, we’re still seeing what the total effects will be on teams to form patterns. We’re also over a month away, and while that may seem soon, with the MLB draft is nearly an eternity. Teams haven’t even started their personal workouts and the interview process, as well as regional showcase events still to come. We’ve got a pretty good feel for what’s at the top, but the spots where the Cardinals will be picking (19th and 28th) it’s still a bit of a guess as to who will be there.

It is my personal belief that teams started finding loopholes by taking college Seniors higher than they normally would in the 9th and 10th rounds, signing them for cheap and using their excess money to throw at players they draft in the 11th round and later. For me, I tend to try and look at the draft as a whole, rather than a series of singular rounds. You can start to see a broader strategy that way, and get a good grasp for what the ultimate goal to accomplish was at the end. We all know the Cards love college players, and they love college players who perform well in the college All-Star leagues on the summer circuit. The king of that summer circuit is the Cape Cod league, so I always start my Cardinals draft prep with a review of the Cape and who performed well there. From there, I take a look at the other summer circuits and familiarize myself with the top high school kids because the Cards will also take a lottery ticket or two as well. Normally, you’ll get a high price high school kid, and then you’ll get a high school kid who will sign for slot but has upside. Last year the high ticket kid was Carson Kelly and the high school kid who will sign for slot was Steven Bean. You saw the 11th round pick that was nearly unsignable in Trey Williams, and the 12th round pick with upside who did sign for relatively modest numbers in Max Foody. The reason for this is that players drafted outside the top-10 rounds can be paid up to 100k before they start counting against your draft cap, so you basically get a “free” 100k towards signing these players. (Sidebar, Williams spurned Pepperdine at the last minute and went Juco for the College of the Canyons instead and will be eligible for this draft, but had a merely decent year).

With that in mind, you have to remember that the players draft position is a mixture of talent, signability, projection and strategy. Believe it or not, you can also see trends with teams’ drafting in a geographic pattern as well. The Braves are famous for picking high school players from nearby Atlanta-area schools. Baltimore has some of their best scouts in the state of Oklahoma. Kansas City likes the state of Texas, but they also tend to draft players from the Kansas City metro area quite a bit. Everybody heavily scouts and pursues the states of Texas, California and Florida.

Since this is mostly Cardinals-centric, you will see the Cards love Texas and California players. Michael Wacha was their first pick last year and played in Texas, and four of their first five picks were from California or Texas. In 2011, three of their first six picks were from California or Texas. In 2009, two of their first five picks were from California or Texas. The Cardinals tend to subscribe to the theory that young prospects present more upside for future development, so they are one of the teams that values a player being closer to 17 than 19 at the time of the draft. If they’re going college, they are not afraid of high achieving Senior pitchers, and they love pitchers who can get ground balls. If you’re a high achieving college pitcher who fared well in the summer circuit and you get groundballs, you’re a prime candidate for the Cardinals to pick you.

I tend to mock the Cardinals for their affinity towards lower upside players, but in reality, they really do employ an excellent mix of upside driven picks, and picks that do not excite the fanbase but fill the upper minors with grinders and achievers and players who out produce their draft slots. Just look at today’s roster to illustrate my point; Allen Craig (8th round), Matt Adams (23rd round), Trevor Rosenthal (21st round of the same draft), Jaime Garcia (22nd round), Joe Kelly (3rd round but lightly regarded), Daniel Descalso (3rd round, but a cheap sign), Matt Carpenter (13th round), Tony Cruz (26th round). Some bit pieces in Sam Freeman (24th round), Adron Chambers (38th round), Luke Gregerson (28th round but traded). All of this to show that the Cards draft strategy of looking for certain traits in players as well as characteristics of work ethic, versatility and performance against strong competition is highly successful.

The MLB draft is a different animal than other professional sports in that the payoff is not in the short-term, and the players are generally many years away from appearing on the MLB roster. The Cardinals have zero players on the roster from the 2010, 2011 or 2012 drafts thus far, and are just now seeing the fruits of their labor from the 2009 draft with Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Matt Carpenter. Ryan Jackson has had a cup of coffee as well. This is a long winded way of saying that yes, the Cardinals need a SS, but you can’t look at the draft in the way of filling needs. You’re looking to find players who fit your organizational philosophy who have the skills and talent to refine and develop into contributors in some way at the big leagues. Another difference with the MLB draft is the practice of taking players simply to fill out a roster. The Cardinals take college Seniors for more reasons than just the hopes of getting them to the big club one day, they also need to have players who will fill out their lower level rosters. Many a player has carved out a nice career for themselves by being a good guy in the clubhouse, leading by example and generally being a good influence on the more talented prospects. These players often times turn into coaches or work for the organization in some capacity after their careers are over. So, when you start getting into the 30-something rounds and you see a C come off the board and then a 2B and then a versatile athlete, it’s just as likely they need one of those positions to fill out a roster as it is they are high on said player. Favors and nepotism occurs often in the later rounds as well. Loyal scouts with a nephew who is a decent athlete will get thrown a bone late in the draft so they can say they were drafted etc. or sometimes a family of the organization will ask them to draft their son to avoid the pressures of signing because they know they’re going to college after slipping that far into the draft (this occurred with our own Mike Matheny’s son last year).

Here is the part where I contradict a good part of what I said above and say that the Cardinals may not necessarily draft for need, they’re also aware of the needs within their organization and have shown an affinity towards attacking that position in recent years. Last year, the Cardinals noted that they were shallow in 3B prospects, and wouldn’t you know it, they drafted 3B’men like they were going out of style. The year before, they hinted they lacked CF type prospects, and several CF prospects flew off the board. The team lamented a lack of LHP in the minors, and several lefties came off the board after the early rounds. “See, Phins, teams draft for need in MLB as well!” A deeper look at this strategy though, shows that this isn’t truly the case. Why do teams take 3B prospects? Well, 3B’men in college tend to be excellent hitters with good arms. They may not necessarily have the tools to remain at 3B in MLB, but what can good hitters with good arms and general good initial quickness often times do? Move to a corner OF spot. Or, the best hitters can even move to 1B and still be a prospect. CF’ers with not quite enough bat can still move to a utility OF role and be a 4th OF’er for you, or perhaps even a starter in a platoon role. The versatility of their athleticism gives them another spot to go to. LHP’s who aren’t one of your 5 best starters are still invaluable as LOOGY’s and just ask the Cards how value a guy who can get lefties out can be. You see this most predominantly with SS prospects, who rarely are able to stay at the spot in the big leagues, but can move to nearly any other position athletically. A 2B only prospect has to hit, and HIT a lot or they won’t make a big league club due to no versatility. Your utility infielder has to be able to play SS in a pinch to remain in the big leagues.

The Cards have shown a willingness to take players from riskier demographics such as the Midwest (Charlie Tilson), the Northeast (Adam Ottavino) and the Northwest (Carson Kelly), so the whole map is at least under consideration. Some teams shy away from Northern areas completely due to the higher risk involved. Players from these areas are riskier because of the weather preventing them from having as much opportunity to refine their skills and just play the game. The Cardinals tend to see this as a double edged sword and believe Northern players have untapped upside and might have more room for growth than their more advanced counterparts in the Northern states. You’ll notice the aforementioned players above are typically quite young for their class as well. Ottavino was a young college player at 20, Kelly was young at 17 and Tilson was younger as well. Something to keep in mind when trying to identify players the Cardinals could be interested in.

Taking a look at the Cards minor-league system you see a few positions that could use strengthening in SS, LHP and C. The Cards system is so strong, you can find solid examples of players at these positions up and down the system. At SS, you have a college performer in Alex Mejia, Jake Lemmerman (who came over for Skippy), Greg Garcia and Ryan Jackson . Nothing high upside amongst this group though. At LHP you have Jon Gast, Tim Cooney, Tyler Lyons, Sam Freeman, Lee Stoppelman and Hector Hernandez. Nothing too high upside here either. At C, you’ve got some players to dream on, but this might be the weakest position in the Cardinals system. Again, you don’t draft for need, but you do try to align weaknesses with strengths in the draft where you can and slot talent into those spots.


Here are the Cape Cod top-prospects for last summer that are eligible for this draft:
1. Sean Manaea, lhp, Hyannis (Jr., Indiana State)
2. Colin Moran, 3b, Bourne (Jr., North Carolina)
3. Phil Ervin, of, Harwich (Jr., Samford)
4. Austin Wilson, of, Harwich (Jr., Stanford)
5. Kevin Ziomek, lhp, Cotuit (Jr., Vanderbilt)
6. Aaron Judge, of, Brewster (Jr., Fresno State)
7. Colby Suggs, rhp, Wareham (Jr., Arkansas)
8. Jacoby Jones, of/2b, Harwich (Jr., Louisiana State)
9. A.J. Vanegas, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Jr., Stanford)
10. Tom Windle, lhp, Brewster (Jr., Minnesota)
11. Dan Slania, rhp, Cotuit (Jr., Notre Dame)
12. Chad Pinder, 3b, Chatham (Jr., Virginia Tech)
13. Eric Jagielo, 3b, Harwich (Jr., Notre Dame)
14. Trey Masek, rhp, Falmouth (Jr., Texas Tech)
15. Mike Mayers, rhp, Bourne (Jr., Mississippi)
16. Michael O’Neill, of, Falmouth (Jr., Michigan)
17. Aaron Blair, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Jr., Marshall)
18. Michael Wagner, rhp, Chatham (Jr., San Diego)
19. Corey Littrell, lhp, Harwich (Jr., Kentucky)
20. Matt Boyd, lhp, Orleans (Sr., Oregon State)
21. Conrad Gregor, 1b, Orleans (Jr., Vanderbilt)
22. Jared King, of, Falmouth (Jr., Kansas State)
23. Dylan Covey, rhp, Orleans (Jr., San Diego)
24. Tyler Horan, of, Wareham (Jr., Virginia Tech)

Draft eligible Team USA

1. Ryne Stanek, rhp (Jr., Arkansas)
2. Jonathon Crawford, rhp (Jr., Florida)
3. Kris Bryant, 3b/of (Jr., San Diego)
4. Bobby Wahl, rhp (Jr., Mississippi)
5. Marco Gonzales, lhp (Jr., Gonzaga)
6. D.J. Peterson, 3b/1b (Jr., New Mexico)
7. Trevor Williams, rhp (Jr., Arizona State)
8. Michael Lorenzen, of/rhp (Jr., Cal State Fullerton)
9. Dan Child, rhp (Jr., Oregon State)
10. Adam Plutko, rhp (Jr., UCLA)
11. Johnny Field, of (Jr., Arizona)
12. Adam Frazier, ss/2b (Jr., Mississippi State)
13. Kyle Farmer, ss (Sr., Georgia)

Top Alaska League Prospects
1. Braden Shipley, rhp, Anchorage Bucs (Jr., Nevada)
2. Trey Teakell, rhp, Anchorage Glacier Pilots (R-So., Texas Christian)
3. Ian Miller, of, Mat-Su (Jr., Wagner)
4. Jon Maciel, rhp, Peninsula (Jr., Long Beach State)
5. Chase Compton, 1b, Anchorage Bucs (Jr., Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Jordan Mills, lhp, Peninsula (Jr., St. Mary’s)

Atlantic Collegiate Baseball League
1. Paul Paez, lhp, Southampton (So., Rio Hondo, Calif., JC)
2. Kyle McGowin, rhp, Sag Harbor (Jr., Savannah State)
3. Esteban Gomez, 1b, Westhampton (Jr., St. Thomas, Fla.)
4. Trevor Simms, rhp, Shelter Island (So., Weatherford, Texas, JC)
5. Brenton Allen, of, Southampton (Jr., UCLA)
6. Charlie Curl, 2b/ss, Sag Harbor (Jr., Texas A&M)

Here is Baseball America’s top-30 MLB draft prospects and here is the link to the full 100 list.
1 Jonathan Gray, rhp, Oklahoma
2 Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford
3 Kris Bryant, 3b/of, San Diego
4 Clint Frazier, of, Loganville (Ga.) HS
5 Austin Meadows, of, Grayson HS, Loganville, Ga.
6 Kohl Stewart, rhp, St. Pius X HS, Houston
7 Colin Moran, 3b, North Carolina
8 Braden Shipley, rhp, Nevada
9 Trey Ball, lhp, New Castle (Ind.) HS
10 Sean Manaea, lhp, Indiana State
11 Ryne Stanek, rhp, Arkansas
12 Reese McGuire, c, Kentwood HS, Covington, Wash.
13 Hunter Renfroe, of, Mississippi State
14 Dominic Smith, 1b, JSerra HS, Gardena, Calif.
15 D.J. Peterson, 3b/1b, New Mexico
16 J.P. Crawford, ss, Lakewood (Calif.) HS
17 Eric Jagielo, 3b, Notre Dame
18 Ian Clarkin, lhp, Madison HS, San Diego
19 Jonathon Crawford, rhp, Florida
20 Nick Ciuffo, c, Lexington (S.C.) HS
21 Phillip Ervin, of, Samford
22 Rob Kaminsky, lhp, St. Joseph Regional HS, Montvale, N.J.
23 Jon Denney, c, Yukon (Okla.) HS
24 Hunter Harvey, rhp, Bandys HS, Catawba, N.C.
25 Phil Bickford, rhp, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif.
26 Chris Anderson, rhp, Jacksonville
27 Billy McKinney, of, Plano (Texas) West HS
28 Marco Gonzales, lhp, Gonzaga
29 Austin Wilson, of, Stanford
30 Aaron Judge, of, Fresno State

I don’t list these names expecting you to remember them, or even that all are going to be high draft choices, or that they’ll all be drafted period. I list them simply as names to watch for the Cardinals as they love summer league performers.

I’m sure I’ll do another review of the draft similar to this one from last year, after we get a better feel for what the Cardinals actually do in the draft.

The Cardinals have an extra 1st rounder again this year in compensation for losing free agent Kyle Lohse. This opens up some options for the Cardinals and allows them some flexibility in how they choose to attack the draft this year. I’d like to walk through the options that I feel they have in their approach to their picks. The pick numbers and slot values are shown below for ease of reference (I’ve seen conflicting numbers, but I went with Baseball America’s numbers for this exercise):
19. 1.9 million
28. 1.65 million
59. $870,600
86. $574,300
117. $404,400
150. $294,200
180. $220,300
210. $165,100
240. $143,300
270. $133,800
300. $125,000
330. $125,000

This gives the Cardinals a total of $6,606,000 to work with in the top 10 rounds to sign their picks. Remember, they only receive the money in their pool if they sign the player.


The College Arm Approach:
This draft is not the type of draft we’ve seen in the recent past with a transcendent talent at the top like Strasburg or Harper, but it is fairly deep in solid, safe college arms. The Cardinals have shown an affinity towards this type of prospect in the past, and could look that direction again in this draft, especially if they feel they can sign them to below slot deals to use that money elsewhere.

This approach would start with someone like Chris Anderson at 19. Anderson is someone who was believed to be a top-10 kid coming into the season, but his stuff has regressed a bit and he’s had a heavy workload in college. Out of Jacksonville University he hails from an area the Cards draft a lot of (born in Minnesota, he developed late). He’s 6-4, 220 and has a large, durable frame that the Cards favor. He has a two plus pitch mix with a promising changeup and would fit right in with the Cards recent philosophy of being underaged at less than 21 years old. He won’t sign for less than slot, but shouldn’t be a signing risk either. Give him the $1.9 million and he’s in your minor league complex.
With this strategy, they could come back with someone such as Andrew Thurman, who is from California and another area the Cards love to draft. He’s also a great pitchers frame at 6-3, 205 with long, loose limbs and four pitches that all profile as average save for the fastball, which is plus (clocked as high as 95). He’ll sign for slot.

From there, the Cards could look at one of the higher upside HS kids like Tucker Neuhaus who is toolsy, but will have to shift to 3B in the pros, rather than SS he plays in HS.

The High School Approach:
This approach involves taking some of the higher upside high school kids on the theory that the Cards have so much depth in the upper minors, they can take kids who are further away from reaching the bigs and have a longer development path to take. They can be creative with the drafting of college Seniors in subsequent rounds to pay for them. Someone such as Billy McKinney from Plano, Texas would fit the bill quite nicely. He is a CF and has a smooth swing and plus athleticism. He should be able to handle CF, but if a move to a corner was necessary, he profiles to have the bat to handle the move.

They can follow that up with Oscar Mercado, a HS SS from Florida who definitely the athleticism to stay at SS and has a pretty high upside. Both of these selections should sign for their slot numbers, or close enough to them. From there, the Cards could look at Devin Williams, a HS RHP from St. Louis, whom the Cards like I’ve read.

Mixed Approach:
The most likely approach for them to take on draft day. I wrote above some of the positions the Cards lacked depth in the minors, but one of the tools they lack a bit of is power from position players. They could take an Aaron Judge with their 1st pick and then come back with a Billy McKinney or a prep arm at Last year I included Michael Wacha, Joey Gallo, Gerin Cecchinni, Wyatt Mathieson, Casey Kelly, Kyle Seager and Addison Russell in this section and have had pretty solid returns to this point in their careers. This year, there are several players I like quite a bit and would be happy with the Cards grabbing them. I do like JP Crawford quite a bit, and hope he somehow falls to 19. The best high school SS in the draft has fared well on the showcase circuit and has the athleticism to stay at the position. I like Phil Bickworth, a prep arm that has long, loose levers and tons of projection. He needs to learn to get his upper and lower halves to work in unison, but tons to work with here. I’m a fan of McKinney’s swing and think he’d bring athleticism and some pop to the system. I really like Oscar Mercado’s defensive fluidity and love watching the Latin flair the middle infielders can play with.

If given my druthers of realistic options, I might go with a little safer route than I’ve gone in the past. There are a ton of prep arms out there that need to be refined, but the player development ability of the Cardinals have always impressed me, so I might go with Chris Anderson due to his fastball, frame and talent and then follow it up with Philip Ervin, who just crushed the Cape Cod league start to finish. After that, I imagine I’d come back with a HS player such as Jon Denney, a college arm such as Aaron Blair, Marco Gonzales, Ryan Eades or some solid position player options as well.

This is merely meant to be an overview of the draft and the strategies and ancillary concerns that come into play in the strategy for the draft. Players will move up and down in the coming weeks as bonus demands are floated, injuries are revealed, interviews are had, and workouts take place. We can get into the meat and potatoes of the players the Cards take after the draft if over, but for now, hopefully this gets the conversation rolling in the right direction.

[STL_Cards]

I really like Sean Manaea. Any chance he's available when the Cardinals pick?

[phins]

There is a chance on Manaea, unfortunately, he's lost a ton off his stuff and teams aren't sure what to do with him. Two weeks ago he was mid-80's and that isn't going to make teams feel great. If he does return to form, no chance he's there. If he doesn't, then he's a risky pick who's repped by Boras and has just as good a chance as anyone of pulling an Appel and going back to school to restablish his draft stock.

I wouldn't take him unless I had lots of faith I could sign him for close to $2 million and his stuff is coming back. Lots of ifs there, but the arm could be special, but he gets hit more than you'd think.

Being in Missouri State's conference, they play him on Friday's vs. Petree and he has great velocity, but he can wild high in the zone and some of his other stuff was less impressive. Coupled with the velocity drop as of late and he's a total wildcard.

[STL_Cards]

Thanks for the info. Hopefully, he can get his stock up but can still fall to the Cardinals. I like his talent.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Awesome phins.

Thanks for posting. What's Appel's story again? Thought he was gonna go #1 overall last year, fell to #8 and didn't sign to try to up his stock after falling so 'low'? What is he expecting to happen this year now that he's a senior with no leverage?

[phins]

He'll sign #1 overall for slot. Slot is something like 6+ million at #1 while he was looking at 3 million where Pitt took him.

Looks like he gambled right. Teams don't really get a discount from the uber Senior prospects, but they don't usually have to go way over either.

We gave Ramsey virtually slot who wasn't that level talent in my mind.

[fanforever]

Local kid from here in NJ...Keep an eye on him

http://www.nj.com/hssports/blog/basebal ... c_6-1.html

[phins]

St Louis lefty Jake Brentz up to 94 this morning at Perfect Game showcase. A major showcase for talent.

Showcase season is officially here.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

AWESOMESAUCE, Phins. Thanks

[STL_Cards]

The MLB draft is always a big question mark. A large percentage of players who get drafted never make it to the major leagues. That's why I have a hard time getting into the prospect hype. MLB isn't like other sports, where drafted players make an impact right away.